Policy divergence and voter polarization in a structural model of elections

Stefan Krasa, Mattias Polborn

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

One of the most widely discussed phenomena in American politics today is the perceived increasing partisan divide that splits the U.S. electorate. A contested question is whether this diagnosis is actually true and, if so, what the underlying cause might be. We propose a new method that simultaneously estimates voters’ preferences and parties’ positions on economic and cultural issues. We apply the model to U.S. presidential elections between 1972 and 2008. The model recovers candidates’ positions from voters’ behavior and decomposes changes in the overall political polarization of the electorate into changes in the distribution of voters’ ideal positions (voter radicalization) and consequences of elite polarization (sorting).

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)31-76
Number of pages46
JournalJournal of Law and Economics
Volume57
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2014

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structural model
polarization
divergence
voter
election
radicalization
presidential election
elite
candidacy
cause
politics
economics
Polarization
Elections
Divergence
Voters
Vote
Structural model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Law

Cite this

Policy divergence and voter polarization in a structural model of elections. / Krasa, Stefan; Polborn, Mattias.

In: Journal of Law and Economics, Vol. 57, No. 1, 01.01.2014, p. 31-76.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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