OPEC "fair price" pronouncements and the market price of crude oil

Celso Brunetti, Bahattin Büyüksahin, Michel A. Robe, Kirsten R. Soneson

Research output: Contribution to specialist publicationArticle

Abstract

OPEC producers, individually or collectively, often make statements regarding the "fair price" of crude oil. In some cases, the officials commenting are merely affirming the market price prevailing at the time. In many cases, however, we document that they explicitly disagree with contemporaneous oil futures prices. A natural question is whether these "fair price" pronouncements contain information not already reflected in the market price of crude oil. To find the answer, we collect "fair price" statements made from 2000 through 2010 by officials from OPEC or OPEC member countries. Visually, the "fair price" series looks like a sampling discretely drawn (with a lag) from the daily futures market price series. Formally, we use two primary methodologies to establish that "fair price" pronouncements have little influence on the market price of crude oil and provide little or no new news to oil futures market participants.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages79-108
Number of pages30
Volume34
No4
Specialist publicationEnergy Journal
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 28 2013
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ADL)
  • Crude oil
  • Event study
  • Fair price
  • Market price
  • OPEC

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Energy(all)

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