TY - JOUR
T1 - On the construction principle of conceptual models for severe convective weather forecasting operations in China
AU - Liu, Xinhua
AU - Zhou, Kanghui
AU - Lan, Y. U.
AU - Mao, X. U.
AU - Trapp, Robert J.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 American Meteorological Society.
PY - 2020/2
Y1 - 2020/2
N2 - It is argued here that even with the development of objective algorithms, convection-allowing numerical models, and artificial intelligence/machine learning, conceptual models will still be useful for forecasters until all these methods can fully satisfy the forecast requirements in the future. Conceptual models can help forecasters form forecast ideas quickly. They also can make up for the deficiencies of the numerical model and other objective methods. Furthermore, they can help forecasters understand the weather, and then help the forecasters lock in on the key features affecting the forecast as soon as possible. Ultimately, conceptual models can help the forecaster serve the end users faster, and better understand the forecast results during the service process. Based on the above considerations, construction of new conceptual models should have the following characteristics: 1) be guided by purpose, 2) focus on improving the ability of forecasters, 3) have multiangle consideration, 4) have multiscale fusion, and 5) need to be tested and corrected continuously. The traditional conceptual models used for forecasts of severe convective weather should be replaced gradually by new models that incorporate these principles.
AB - It is argued here that even with the development of objective algorithms, convection-allowing numerical models, and artificial intelligence/machine learning, conceptual models will still be useful for forecasters until all these methods can fully satisfy the forecast requirements in the future. Conceptual models can help forecasters form forecast ideas quickly. They also can make up for the deficiencies of the numerical model and other objective methods. Furthermore, they can help forecasters understand the weather, and then help the forecasters lock in on the key features affecting the forecast as soon as possible. Ultimately, conceptual models can help the forecaster serve the end users faster, and better understand the forecast results during the service process. Based on the above considerations, construction of new conceptual models should have the following characteristics: 1) be guided by purpose, 2) focus on improving the ability of forecasters, 3) have multiangle consideration, 4) have multiscale fusion, and 5) need to be tested and corrected continuously. The traditional conceptual models used for forecasts of severe convective weather should be replaced gradually by new models that incorporate these principles.
KW - Atmosphere
KW - Forecasting
KW - Forecasting techniques
KW - Mesoscale forecasting
KW - Operational forecasting
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U2 - 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0026.1
DO - 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0026.1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85081544271
SN - 0882-8156
VL - 35
SP - 299
EP - 308
JO - Weather and Forecasting
JF - Weather and Forecasting
IS - 1
ER -