Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict: Evidence from the Philippines

Benjamin Crost, Joseph H. Felter, Hani Mansour, Daniel I. Rees

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Post-election violence is a common form of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election violence is particularly intense after narrow victories by incumbents. Using a density test, the study shows that incumbents were substantially more likely to win narrow victories than their challengers, a pattern consistent with electoral manipulation. There is no evidence that the increase in post-election violence is related to the incumbents' political platform or their performance in past elections. These results provide support for the notion that post-election violence is triggered by election fraud or by the failure of democratic ways of removing unpopular incumbents from office.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)767-789
Number of pages23
JournalWorld Bank Economic Review
Issue number3
StatePublished - Oct 1 2020


  • Philippines
  • civil conflict
  • election fraud
  • institutional weaknesses

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Accounting
  • Development
  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics


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