Multiannual infestation patterns of grapevine plant inhabiting Scaphoideus titanus (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) leafhoppers

The Nearctic leafhopper Scaphoideus titanus Ball (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) was accidentally introduced in Europe, where it became the vector of the 'Candidatus Phytoplasma vitis' phytoplasma causing the 'Flavescence dorée' disease of grapevine plants. A time-varying distributed delay model, simulating the successive occurrences of egg hatching, nymph presence, and adult emergence, is extended here to represent multi-generation infestation patterns of grapevine plants inhabited by eggs, nymphs, and adults. The model extension includes intrinsic mortality, mortality caused by plant dormancy, and low temperatures, development of diapausing and post-diapausing eggs, fecundity rates, and adult longevity. Field observations and published data were used to estimate parameters. The model was validated with five years canopy infestation data from five vineyards not subjected to insecticide treatments and found to have satisfactory explicative and predictive qualities. The model output is most sensitive to a 10% variation in the upper threshold and in the shape parameters of the survivorship function and least sensitive to a 10% variation in the shape parameters of the development function and the survivorship level. Recommendations are made to take into account other factors than temperature and plant phenology and include a wider geographical area in further model development.