Modeling the joint probability distribution of main shock and aftershock spectral accelerations

Sheng Hu, Armin Tabandeh, Paolo Gardoni

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Abstract

Seismic risk analysis of deteriorating structures and infrastructure often requires predicting the intensity measures of earthquake ground motions in main shock-aftershock sequences. The uncertainty in the intensity measures of ground motions is typically a dominant contributor to the total uncertainty of the seismic risk analysis. A model for the joint probability distribution of main shock and aftershock intensity measures is thus required to accurately quantify the uncertainty in the seismic risk analysis. The spectral accelerations of ground motions have been identified as significant intensity measures for the seismic risk analysis of structures and infrastructure. The values of spectral accelerations can be affected by many factors representing the characteristics of the seismic source, travel path of seismic waves, and local site conditions. These factors can also introduce statistical dependence among main shock and aftershock spectral accelerations. This paper develops a novel formulation for the joint probability distribution of main shock and aftershock spectral accelerations at multiple periods. We select existing predictive models for the spectral accelerations of main shocks and develop a separate model for the spectral accelerations of aftershocks. The proposed formulation also estimates the correlations between the relevant pairs of model error terms in the two probabilistic predictive models for a wide range of periods. This allows us to separately capture the similarity in source and site and thus present the physical meanings. The increased vulnerability of structures and infrastructure in the aftermath of a damaging mainshock can further highlight the significance of capturing such correlations in the seismic risk analysis.

Original languageEnglish (US)
StatePublished - Jan 1 2019
Event13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019 - Seoul, Korea, Republic of
Duration: May 26 2019May 30 2019

Conference

Conference13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019
CountryKorea, Republic of
CitySeoul
Period5/26/195/30/19

Fingerprint

Joint Distribution
Risk Analysis
Probability distributions
Risk analysis
Shock
Probability Distribution
Modeling
Infrastructure
Predictive Model
Uncertainty
Motion
Seismic Waves
Seismic waves
Model Error
Formulation
Error term
Earthquake
Vulnerability
Probabilistic Model
Earthquakes

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Statistics and Probability

Cite this

Hu, S., Tabandeh, A., & Gardoni, P. (2019). Modeling the joint probability distribution of main shock and aftershock spectral accelerations. Paper presented at 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019, Seoul, Korea, Republic of.

Modeling the joint probability distribution of main shock and aftershock spectral accelerations. / Hu, Sheng; Tabandeh, Armin; Gardoni, Paolo.

2019. Paper presented at 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019, Seoul, Korea, Republic of.

Research output: Contribution to conferencePaper

Hu, S, Tabandeh, A & Gardoni, P 2019, 'Modeling the joint probability distribution of main shock and aftershock spectral accelerations' Paper presented at 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019, Seoul, Korea, Republic of, 5/26/19 - 5/30/19, .
Hu S, Tabandeh A, Gardoni P. Modeling the joint probability distribution of main shock and aftershock spectral accelerations. 2019. Paper presented at 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019, Seoul, Korea, Republic of.
Hu, Sheng ; Tabandeh, Armin ; Gardoni, Paolo. / Modeling the joint probability distribution of main shock and aftershock spectral accelerations. Paper presented at 13th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2019, Seoul, Korea, Republic of.
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