Modeling pavement fragility

Vighnesh P. Deshpande, Ivan D. Damnjanovic, Paolo Gardoni

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Pavement performance models are the key to efficient designs and effective management practices. Over the years, a number of researchers have developed reliability models to account for the uncertainty in pavement responses and utilization patterns. However, these efforts were mostly directed toward coupled capacity-demand limit state functions that do not take into account the discontinuities after the application of rehabilitation actions (e.g., overlays). The aim of this paper is to develop a pavement fragility modeling framework that accounts for the effects of the rehabilitation actions. The fragility, defined as the conditional probability of failure given a unit level of utilization, uncouples the reliability function into the capacity and demand functions, which are two separate areas of study in pavement engineering. Closed-form approximations of the fragility curves are developed to illustrate the process and allow for seamless integration in design and management optimization models.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number001006QTE
Pages (from-to)592-596
Number of pages5
JournalJournal of Transportation Engineering
Issue number6
StatePublished - Jun 2010
Externally publishedYes


  • Fragilities
  • Pavements
  • Regression
  • Rehabilitation
  • Reliability

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Civil and Structural Engineering
  • Transportation


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