Modeling past and future structure of the global virtual water trade network

C. Dalin, S. Suweis, M. Konar, N. Hanasaki, I. Rodriguez-Iturbe

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Climate change and socio-economic development place an increasing pressure on essential natural resources, such as arable land and freshwater. The international food trade can save water globally by redistributing commodities produced relatively more water-efficiently. We focus on the global virtual water trade network associated with international staple food trade from 1986-2008. This study aims to determine which variables control the network's structure and temporal evolution, and to estimate changes in the network under future scenarios. Our fitness model reproduces both the topological and weighted characteristics of the network for the whole period. Undirected and directed network properties are well reproduced in each year, assuming as sole controls each nation's GDP, mean annual rainfall, agricultural area and population. The future structure of the network is estimated using climate and socio-economic projections, showing that volumes of virtual water traded will become increasingly heterogeneous and the importance of dominant importing nations will further strengthen.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL24402
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume39
Issue number24
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 28 2012
Externally publishedYes

Fingerprint

water
food
arable land
temporal evolution
Gross Domestic Product
commodity
economic development
fitness
natural resource
agricultural land
rainfall
climate change
climate
economics
modeling
commodities
resources
projection
estimates

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
  • Geophysics

Cite this

Dalin, C., Suweis, S., Konar, M., Hanasaki, N., & Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. (2012). Modeling past and future structure of the global virtual water trade network. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(24), [L24402]. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053871

Modeling past and future structure of the global virtual water trade network. / Dalin, C.; Suweis, S.; Konar, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, No. 24, L24402, 28.12.2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Dalin, C, Suweis, S, Konar, M, Hanasaki, N & Rodriguez-Iturbe, I 2012, 'Modeling past and future structure of the global virtual water trade network' Geophysical Research Letters, vol 39, no. 24, L24402. DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053871
Dalin C, Suweis S, Konar M, Hanasaki N, Rodriguez-Iturbe I. Modeling past and future structure of the global virtual water trade network. Geophysical Research Letters. 2012 Dec 28;39(24). L24402. Available from, DOI: 10.1029/2012GL053871

Dalin, C.; Suweis, S.; Konar, M.; Hanasaki, N.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I. / Modeling past and future structure of the global virtual water trade network.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, No. 24, L24402, 28.12.2012.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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