METHOD TO ASSESS ECONOMIC RISK APPLIED TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROL OPTIONS FOR ANIMAL HOUSING.

The utility of combining a stochastic model for mean daily temperature with a deterministic model to predict animal and building performance is presented. A major effect of the stochastic input is to incorporate random fluctuations such as are encountered during actual building operation that result in varying costs and income, hence net return, from the building. A method is presented to quantify the economic risk associated with different control options for different building life spans. A step by step statistical approach for evaluating the economic risk is demonstrated using data from stochastic simulations in the literature.