TY - GEN
T1 - Machine learning prediction of airport delays in the US air transportation network
AU - Chandramouleeswaran, Keshav Ram
AU - Krzemien, David
AU - Burns, Kevin
AU - Tran, Huy T.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc, AIAA. All rights reserved.
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - This paper presents an approach for predicting delay states of airports in the United States Air Transportation Network using publicly available data. We illustrate a procedure to predict future airport delays in the network based on temporal, network-level, congestion, and weather-related features from past and current data. As part of this approach, we devised a network delay metric that reduces the dimensionality of network-level delay information into a single variable, thus reducing the feature space and enabling use of classic statistical models. We consider two model types for this paper: a Neural Network model and a Logistic Regression model. We find that prediction performance is most significantly impacted by forecast interval and delay threshold for the presented cases. Similar test accuracies are seen among considered models, with accuracies ranging from 59.5% to 95.8% depending on problem settings. We also test performance of a Neural Network model for the difficult task of predicting airport delay states during extreme events, and find a test accuracy of 69.2% for data from Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
AB - This paper presents an approach for predicting delay states of airports in the United States Air Transportation Network using publicly available data. We illustrate a procedure to predict future airport delays in the network based on temporal, network-level, congestion, and weather-related features from past and current data. As part of this approach, we devised a network delay metric that reduces the dimensionality of network-level delay information into a single variable, thus reducing the feature space and enabling use of classic statistical models. We consider two model types for this paper: a Neural Network model and a Logistic Regression model. We find that prediction performance is most significantly impacted by forecast interval and delay threshold for the presented cases. Similar test accuracies are seen among considered models, with accuracies ranging from 59.5% to 95.8% depending on problem settings. We also test performance of a Neural Network model for the difficult task of predicting airport delay states during extreme events, and find a test accuracy of 69.2% for data from Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85051661937&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85051661937&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2514/6.2018-3672
DO - 10.2514/6.2018-3672
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85051661937
SN - 9781624105562
T3 - 2018 Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference
BT - 2018 Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference
PB - American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Inc, AIAA
T2 - 18th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference, 2018
Y2 - 25 June 2018 through 29 June 2018
ER -