TY - JOUR
T1 - Losses caused by weather and climate extremes
T2 - A national index for the united states
AU - Changnon, Stanley A.
AU - Changnon, Joyce M.
AU - Hewings, Geoffrey J.D.
N1 - Funding Information:
Acknowledgments: Roger A. Pielke, Jr. of the National Center for Atmospheric Research provided useful guidance and extensive amounts of data on flood losses, tornado losses, and hurricane losses. David Easterlingof the National Climate Data Center provided the annual data for the Climate Extremes Index and the Greenhouse Climate Response Index. Jene Robinson of Illinois Power and Dale Heydlauff of American Electric Power provided helpful advice on the electricity and natural gas analysis. Gary Kerney, Eugene Lecomte, and Richard J. Roth, Sr., all national experts in the property insurance industry, were very helpful in providing guidance and information about insured property losses. Kenneth Kunkel of the Midwestern Climate Center provided useful data and advice about Midwestern conditions. The National Crop Insurance Service provided data on crop losses from hail. Experts at Travelers Insurance Company provided the adjusted catastrophe data used in the study, and we are deeply grateful for their assistance. This research was partly supported by a grant from the Electric Power Research Institute.
PY - 2001
Y1 - 2001
N2 - An annual index measuring past national losses and capable of measuring future loss from weather and climate extremes was developed to help measure future shifts in climate, a subject of great concern to the global warming issue and the insurance industry. Results from climate models indicate that a changed climate owing to global warming would alter and increase many extremes, and the objective of this study was to develop a national-scale index to monitor change in monetary losses and costs from weather and climate extremes. Forty-four historical variables addressing various aspects of weather and climate extremes and their effects on the U.S. economy since the late 1940s were assessed as potential input to such an index. Frequencies of most severe weather conditions from 1950 to 1997 did not correspond well with their financial impacts. However, hurricane losses did correspond with the frequency of intense hurricanes, and tornado losses corresponded well with the number of violent tornadic storms. Quality insurance loss data for several major storm types (thunder, hail, winter, and wind storms) were available, plus quality data on flood and hurricane losses, and all were adjusted to 1997 dollars. Techniques were developed to assess the effect of seasonal climate extremes on major crop yields and costs for electricity and natural gas consumed. Trends were upward for certain key variables between 1950 and 1997, including the incidence and losses associated with winter storms, flood losses, crop losses, and incidence of heavy rains. Trends were downward for other weather-driven loss variables including hurricane losses, energy costs, thunderstorm losses, wind storm losses, and hail losses. Nine loss variables were selected to develop the U.S. annual loss index, and in rank order, based on their average annual loss values, were energy costs, followed by losses from hurricanes, floods, severe convective storms, crops, tornadoes, winter storms, hail, and wind storms. The variables chosen also will be available in future years to allow a continuing assessment using the index. The 1950-1997 average annual index value was $17.47 billion (1997 dollars), with annual values ranging from a high of $54.4 billion in 1972 to a low of $2.4 billion in 1963. The 48-year trend of the index was unchanging with three notable high loss periods: 1950-1954, 1970-1974, and 1990-1994.
AB - An annual index measuring past national losses and capable of measuring future loss from weather and climate extremes was developed to help measure future shifts in climate, a subject of great concern to the global warming issue and the insurance industry. Results from climate models indicate that a changed climate owing to global warming would alter and increase many extremes, and the objective of this study was to develop a national-scale index to monitor change in monetary losses and costs from weather and climate extremes. Forty-four historical variables addressing various aspects of weather and climate extremes and their effects on the U.S. economy since the late 1940s were assessed as potential input to such an index. Frequencies of most severe weather conditions from 1950 to 1997 did not correspond well with their financial impacts. However, hurricane losses did correspond with the frequency of intense hurricanes, and tornado losses corresponded well with the number of violent tornadic storms. Quality insurance loss data for several major storm types (thunder, hail, winter, and wind storms) were available, plus quality data on flood and hurricane losses, and all were adjusted to 1997 dollars. Techniques were developed to assess the effect of seasonal climate extremes on major crop yields and costs for electricity and natural gas consumed. Trends were upward for certain key variables between 1950 and 1997, including the incidence and losses associated with winter storms, flood losses, crop losses, and incidence of heavy rains. Trends were downward for other weather-driven loss variables including hurricane losses, energy costs, thunderstorm losses, wind storm losses, and hail losses. Nine loss variables were selected to develop the U.S. annual loss index, and in rank order, based on their average annual loss values, were energy costs, followed by losses from hurricanes, floods, severe convective storms, crops, tornadoes, winter storms, hail, and wind storms. The variables chosen also will be available in future years to allow a continuing assessment using the index. The 1950-1997 average annual index value was $17.47 billion (1997 dollars), with annual values ranging from a high of $54.4 billion in 1972 to a low of $2.4 billion in 1963. The 48-year trend of the index was unchanging with three notable high loss periods: 1950-1954, 1970-1974, and 1990-1994.
KW - Climate change
KW - Natural hazards
KW - Storms
KW - Weather extremes
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U2 - 10.1080/02723646.2001.10642727
DO - 10.1080/02723646.2001.10642727
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0034829497
SN - 0272-3646
VL - 22
SP - 1
EP - 27
JO - Physical Geography
JF - Physical Geography
IS - 1
ER -