Lockdown Measures and their Impact on Single- and Two-age-structured Epidemic Model for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Mexico

Jesús Cuevas-Maraver, Panayotis Kevrekidis, Qian-Yong Chen, George Kevrekidis, Victor Villalobos-Daniel, Zoi Rapti, Yannis Drossinos

Research output: Working paper

Abstract

The role of lockdown measures in mitigating COVID-19 in Mexico is investigated using a comprehensive nonlinear ODE model. The model includes both asymptomatic and presymptomatic populations with the latter leading to sickness (with recovery, hospitalization and death possibilities). We consider the situation involving the imposed application of partial social distancing measures in the time series of interest and find optimal parametric fits to the time series of deaths (only), as well as to that of deaths and cumulative infections. We discuss the merits and disadvantages of each approach, we interpret the parameters of the model and assess the realistic nature of the parameters resulting from the optimization procedure. Importantly, we explore a model involving two sub-populations (younger and older than a specific age), to more accurately reflect the observed impact as concerns symptoms and behavior in different age groups. For definitiveness and to separate people that are (typically) in the active workforce, our partition of population is with respect to members younger vs. older than the age of 65. The basic reproductive number of the model is computed for both the single- and the two-population variant. Finally, we consider what would be the impact on the number of deaths and cumulative infections upon imposition of partial lockdown (involving only the older population) and full lockdown (involving the entire population).Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.Funding StatementThis material is based upon work supported by the US National Science Foundation under Grants No. DMS-1815764 (ZR), PHY-1602994, and DMS-1809074 (PGK). PGK also acknowledges support from the Leverhulme Trust via a Visiting Fellowship. Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.YesThe details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:This field is not applicable in our caseAll necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived.YesI understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable.YesAll data are available upon request to authors
Original languageEnglish (US)
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
Number of pages19
DOIs
StateIn preparation - Aug 14 2020

Publication series

NamemedRxiv
PublisherCold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press

Keywords

  • Coronavirus
  • COVID-19
  • severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
  • Novel coronavirus
  • 2019-nCoV
  • pandemic

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