We model future direct radiative forcings of the major anthropogenic aerosol species, sulfate, black and organic carbon, within industrial, power, transport, and residential sectors and biomass burning. A sectoral perspective helps to inform mitigation directions. More accurate projections are facilitated by recent carbonaceous aerosol emission estimates that incorporate projected technology changes, now available for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios A1B and B1, for 2030 and 2050. Net present-day model anthropogenic forcing is -0.11 W m-2. By 2050 this doubles (A1B) or drops by 30% (B1), depending mostly on sulfate changes in the industry and power sectors. Present-day (non-biomass burning) BC forcing comes mostly from residential sources (+0.09 W m-2), however this is projected to decrease by more than a factor of 10 by 2050. Future BC forcing is projected to come mostly from transport, changing from +0.06 W m-2 in 2000 to +0.04 (B1) or +0.07 W m-2 (A1B) by 2050.
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)