Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia

Masayuki Kondo, Kazuhito Ichii, Prabir K. Patra, Joseph G. Canadell, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Leonardo Calle, Yi Y. Liu, Albert I.J.M. Van Dijk, Tazu Saeki, Nobuko Saigusa, Pierre Friedlingstein, Almut Arneth, Anna Harper, Atul K. Jain, Etsushi Kato, Charles Koven, Fang Li, Thomas A.M. Pugh, Sönke ZaehleAndy Wiltshire, Frederic Chevallier, Takashi Maki, Takashi Nakamura, Yosuke Niwa, Christian Rödenbeck

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


An integrated understanding of the biogeochemical consequences of climate extremes and land use changes is needed to constrain land-surface feedbacks to atmospheric CO2 from associated climate change. Past assessments of the global carbon balance have shown particularly high uncertainty in Southeast Asia. Here, we use a combination of model ensembles to show that intensified land use change made Southeast Asia a strong source of CO2 from the 1980s to 1990s, whereas the region was close to carbon neutral in the 2000s due to an enhanced CO2 fertilization effect and absence of moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Our findings suggest that despite ongoing deforestation, CO2 emissions were substantially decreased during the 2000s, largely owing to milder climate that restores photosynthetic capacity and suppresses peat and deforestation fire emissions. The occurrence of strong El Niño events after 2009 suggests that the region has returned to conditions of increased vulnerability of carbon stocks.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number1154
JournalNature communications
Issue number1
StatePublished - Dec 1 2018

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • General Chemistry
  • General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
  • General Physics and Astronomy


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