Inverse uncertainty quantification using the modular Bayesian approach based on Gaussian Process, Part 2: Application to TRACE

Xu Wu, Tomasz Kozlowski, Hadi Meidani, Koroush Shirvan

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse UQ using an improved modular Bayesian approach based on Gaussian Process (GP) for TRACE physical model parameters using the BWR Full-size Fine-Mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT) benchmark steady-state void fraction data. The model discrepancy is described with a GP emulator. Numerical tests have demonstrated that such treatment of model discrepancy can avoid over-fitting. Furthermore, we constructed a fast-running and accurate GP emulator to replace TRACE full model during Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. The computational cost was demonstrated to be reduced by several orders of magnitude. A sequential approach was also developed for efficient test source allocation (TSA) for inverse UQ and validation. This sequential TSA methodology first selects experimental tests for validation that has a full coverage of the test domain to avoid extrapolation of model discrepancy term when evaluated at input setting of tests for inverse UQ. Then it selects tests that tend to reside in the unfilled zones of the test domain for inverse UQ, so that one can extract the most information for posterior probability distributions of calibration parameters using only a relatively small number of tests. This research addresses the “lack of input uncertainty information” issue for TRACE physical input parameters, which was usually ignored or described using expert opinion or user self-assessment in previous work. The resulting posterior probability distributions of TRACE parameters can be used in future uncertainty, sensitivity and validation studies of TRACE code for nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)417-431
Number of pages15
JournalNuclear Engineering and Design
Volume335
DOIs
StatePublished - Aug 15 2018

Fingerprint

Probability distributions
Uncertainty
test
Void fraction
self assessment
Nuclear reactors
design analysis
Extrapolation
Markov processes
Markov chains
nuclear reactors
Markov chain
systems engineering
Systems analysis
void
bundles
Calibration
extrapolation
Sampling
voids

Keywords

  • Bayesian calibration
  • Gaussian Process
  • Inverse uncertainty quantification
  • Model discrepancy
  • Modular Bayesian

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Nuclear and High Energy Physics
  • Nuclear Energy and Engineering
  • Materials Science(all)
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Waste Management and Disposal
  • Mechanical Engineering

Cite this

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abstract = "Inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is a process to quantify the uncertainties in random input parameters while achieving consistency between code simulations and physical observations. In this paper, we performed inverse UQ using an improved modular Bayesian approach based on Gaussian Process (GP) for TRACE physical model parameters using the BWR Full-size Fine-Mesh Bundle Tests (BFBT) benchmark steady-state void fraction data. The model discrepancy is described with a GP emulator. Numerical tests have demonstrated that such treatment of model discrepancy can avoid over-fitting. Furthermore, we constructed a fast-running and accurate GP emulator to replace TRACE full model during Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. The computational cost was demonstrated to be reduced by several orders of magnitude. A sequential approach was also developed for efficient test source allocation (TSA) for inverse UQ and validation. This sequential TSA methodology first selects experimental tests for validation that has a full coverage of the test domain to avoid extrapolation of model discrepancy term when evaluated at input setting of tests for inverse UQ. Then it selects tests that tend to reside in the unfilled zones of the test domain for inverse UQ, so that one can extract the most information for posterior probability distributions of calibration parameters using only a relatively small number of tests. This research addresses the “lack of input uncertainty information” issue for TRACE physical input parameters, which was usually ignored or described using expert opinion or user self-assessment in previous work. The resulting posterior probability distributions of TRACE parameters can be used in future uncertainty, sensitivity and validation studies of TRACE code for nuclear reactor system design and safety analysis.",
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author = "Xu Wu and Tomasz Kozlowski and Hadi Meidani and Koroush Shirvan",
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