Interactive visualizations to improve Bayesian reasoning

Jennifer Tsai, Sarah Miller, Alex Kirlik

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Proper Bayesian reasoning is critical in a variety of domains that require practitioners to make predictions about the probability of events contingent upon earlier actions or events. However much research on judgment has shown that people who are unfamiliar with Bayes' Theorem often reason quite poorly with conditional probabilities due to various cognitive biases. Owing to previous successes of visualization techniques for debiasing judges and improving judgment performance we created an interactive computer visualization designed to aid Bayes-naïve people in solving conditional probability problems that would not require a training period to use and would be flexible enough to accommodate many problem types. Results are suggestive that participants using our interactive visualization were able to substantially improve their Bayesian reasoning performance above that of previous debiasing methods. This finding has significant implications for expanding the toolbox of techniques that can be used to more accurately elicit predictions and forecasts from judges whose expertise lies beyond the realm of statistics.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Meeting, HFES 2011
Pages385-389
Number of pages5
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 28 2011
Event55th Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, HFES 2011 - Las Vegas, NV, United States
Duration: Sep 19 2011Sep 23 2011

Publication series

NameProceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
ISSN (Print)1071-1813

Other

Other55th Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, HFES 2011
CountryUnited States
CityLas Vegas, NV
Period9/19/119/23/11

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Human Factors and Ergonomics

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    Tsai, J., Miller, S., & Kirlik, A. (2011). Interactive visualizations to improve Bayesian reasoning. In Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society 55th Annual Meeting, HFES 2011 (pp. 385-389). (Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society). https://doi.org/10.1177/1071181311551079