INFORMATION SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FORECASTS AND FULFILLMENT.

The Annual Review of Information Science and Technology (ARIST) often concludes its chapters by making forecasts of future developments in the topic area for which they have reviewed the literature. An analysis of at least a ten-year interval of ARIST volumes is presented, identifying which forecasts have proved to be correct, which have failed, and why the latter set have not been realized. In the case of forecasts made for the latter half of the 1980's and beyond, the likelihood of correctness is assessed. Analysis follows the ARIST master plan, which divides the field of information science and technology into five broad areas. The National Science Foundation (NSF) a leading government supporter of the research and development in information science and technology, is publishing Current Research and Development in Scientific Documentation (CRDSD) to compile in a single place and disseminate descriptions of ongoing informative-related research and development projects in the United States and abroad. CRDSD is considered a trend and direction indicator, as many then-current R and D activities blossomed into important contributions, while many more went nowhere. The 'winners' and 'losers' are analyzed and characterized. Insofar as is possible, reasons for 'failure' or discontinuation are pinpointed. The application trails and impacts of 'winners,' pure and applied, are described. The successful flight of Sputnik on 4 October 1957 was regarded as proof of Russian superiority in Science. (Sputnik was technology, not science. We could have been first in space if our Army and Air Force had not been preoccupied with buildings ICBM's. ) Two reasons were generally accepted for this Russian First: their educational system (Why Ivan Can Read and Johnny Can't), and the All-Union scientific and technical information apparat, VINITI. Starting with the Baker report in 1958, almost 40 studies, reports and Congressional hearings have attempted to create VINITI-on-the-Potomac (or Lake Michigan).