TY - JOUR
T1 - Increasing Drought Risks Over the Past Four Centuries Amidst Projected Flood Intensification in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan)—Evidence From Tree Rings
AU - Khan, Nasrullah
AU - Nguyen, Hung T.T.
AU - Galelli, Stefano
AU - Cherubini, Paolo
N1 - Nasrullah Khan's visit to Paolo Cherubini's laboratories was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant IZSEZ0_186442). Part of the dendrochronological data were developed during Nasrullah Khan’s PhD dissertation work, mentored by Moinuddin Ahmed and Jonathan Palmer, supported by the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan Grant 20‐422/R&D (Principal Investigator: Moinuddin Ahmed). Part of the data was developed in a Pak‐US joint project (Principal Investigators: Moinuddin Ahmed and Edward Cook), supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) NAS Grant PGA‐P280423. We thank Jonathan Palmer for his important contributions to the tree ring data. Hung Nguyen is supported by the Lamont‐Doherty Postdoctoral Fellowship. The authors thank Boniface Fosu, the editors, and the three anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions. Our figures made use of colors from https://colorbrewer2.org by Cynthia A. Brewer, Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University.
Nasrullah Khan's visit to Paolo Cherubini's laboratories was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant IZSEZ0_186442). Part of the dendrochronological data were developed during Nasrullah Khan’s PhD dissertation work, mentored by Moinuddin Ahmed and Jonathan Palmer, supported by the Higher Education Commission of Pakistan Grant 20-422/R&D (Principal Investigator: Moinuddin Ahmed). Part of the data was developed in a Pak-US joint project (Principal Investigators: Moinuddin Ahmed and Edward Cook), supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) NAS Grant PGA-P280423. We thank Jonathan Palmer for his important contributions to the tree ring data. Hung Nguyen is supported by the Lamont-Doherty Postdoctoral Fellowship. The authors thank Boniface Fosu, the editors, and the three anonymous reviewers for their useful suggestions. Our figures made use of colors from https://colorbrewer2.org by Cynthia A. Brewer, Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University.
PY - 2022/12/28
Y1 - 2022/12/28
N2 - Increased flood risks have been projected, but with large uncertainties, in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan). To place future changes in a long-term perspective, we produce a 382-year precipitation reconstruction for the basin using seven tree-ring chronologies of old-growth conifers from the Hindu Kush Mountains, a monsoon-shadow area. The reconstruction proves robust over rigorous cross-validations (R2 = 0.60, RE = 0.60, CE = 0.53). The full reconstruction (1637–2018) reveals a steady decline in the low end of the precipitation distribution, implying increasing drought risks. We show that droughts are getting more severe, shorter, and more frequent, interspersed with more frequent pluvials in the past century. Drought risks, compounded with projected flood intensification, pose significant threats for this transboundary river. Therefore, future water management needs to account for both flood and drought risks and be informed by long-term hydroclimatic variability.
AB - Increased flood risks have been projected, but with large uncertainties, in the Kabul River Basin (Afghanistan and Pakistan). To place future changes in a long-term perspective, we produce a 382-year precipitation reconstruction for the basin using seven tree-ring chronologies of old-growth conifers from the Hindu Kush Mountains, a monsoon-shadow area. The reconstruction proves robust over rigorous cross-validations (R2 = 0.60, RE = 0.60, CE = 0.53). The full reconstruction (1637–2018) reveals a steady decline in the low end of the precipitation distribution, implying increasing drought risks. We show that droughts are getting more severe, shorter, and more frequent, interspersed with more frequent pluvials in the past century. Drought risks, compounded with projected flood intensification, pose significant threats for this transboundary river. Therefore, future water management needs to account for both flood and drought risks and be informed by long-term hydroclimatic variability.
KW - climate change
KW - dendrochronology
KW - drought
KW - precipitation reconstruction
KW - water cycle
KW - water resources
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U2 - 10.1029/2022GL100703
DO - 10.1029/2022GL100703
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85145240614
SN - 0094-8276
VL - 49
JO - Geophysical Research Letters
JF - Geophysical Research Letters
IS - 24
M1 - e2022GL100703
ER -