Increasing anthropogenic constituents in the atmosphere and associated climatic changes

Discusses the significant role of a large number of minor trace gases and aerosols on the atmospheric thermal structure as determined from numerical experiments using simple climate models. The objective is to examine the relative contribution of increasing anthropogenic constituents on global surface temperature changes. The climatic models and their treatment of solar radiation are described. Radiatively active trace gases, their concentrations in the pre-industrial atmosphere and present day, and growth rates used in developing future projections are discussed. The influence of atmospheric aerosols is also considered. Climatic effects predicted by the models for several scenarios, including climatic implications of an Antarctic ozone hole, are presented. Accuracy of the model predictions is briefly discussed. (J.M. M.)