In situ soil moisture coupled with extreme temperatures: A study based on the Oklahoma Mesonet

The relationship between the observed (in situ) soil moisture and the percent hot days (%HD) in Oklahoma is examined using quantile regression. Consistent with results from previous modeling studies and observational studies using precipitation deficits as proxy, soil moisture is found to most strongly impact air temperature in the upper quantile of the %HD distribution. The utility of soil moisture for forecasting extreme heat events in Oklahoma is also assessed. Our results show that %HD can be predicted with reasonable skill using soil moisture anomalies from the previous month. These soil moisture-based forecasts of extreme temperature events can be used to support public health and water resource planning and mitigation activities in the Southern Great Plain region of the United States. Key Points In situ-based study shows high impact of soil moisture on extreme temperatures Extreme temperatures predicted with skill using previous month soil moisture Soil moisture forecast of extreme temperatures can aid health and water planning