@article{cc9709777a48401fa1d57e22cf28be8b,
title = "Hybrid Prediction of Weekly Tornado Activity Out to Week 3: Utilizing Weather Regimes",
abstract = "Tornadoes are one of the high-impact weather phenomena that can induce life loss and property damage. Here, we investigate the relationship between large-scale weather regimes and tornado occurrence in boreal spring. Results show that weather regimes strongly modulate the probability of tornado occurrence in the United States due to changes in shear and convective available potential energy and that persisting weather regimes (lasting ≥3 days) contribute to greater than 70% of outbreak days (days with ≥10 tornadoes). A hybrid model based on the weather regime frequency predicted by a numerical model is developed to predict above/below normal weekly tornado activity and has skill better than climatology out to Week 3. The hybrid model can be applied to real-time forecasting and aide in mitigation of severe weather events.",
keywords = "extended range, hybrid prediction, tornado prediction, weather regimes",
author = "Miller, {Douglas E.} and Zhuo Wang and Trapp, {Robert J.} and Harnos, {Daniel S.}",
note = "Funding Information: This work is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmosphric Administration (NOAA) Grants NA15NWS4680007 and NA16OAR4310080. We acknowledge the NCAR Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) for providing computing resources. All ERAI data were provided and are available through the Research data Archive (RDA) ( https://doi.org/10.5065/D6CR5RD9 ). Tornado report data are available at the Storm Prediction Center website ( https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data ). The ECMWF S2S model data are available online (at https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/ ). We thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on this manuscript. Funding Information: This work is supported by the National Oceanic and Atmosphric Administration (NOAA) Grants NA15NWS4680007 and NA16OAR4310080. We acknowledge the NCAR Computational and Information Systems Laboratory (CISL) for providing computing resources. All ERAI data were provided and are available through the Research data Archive (RDA) (https://doi.org/10.5065/D6CR5RD9). Tornado report data are available at the Storm Prediction Center website (https://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/#data). The ECMWF S2S model data are available online (at https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/). We thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments on this manuscript. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2020. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",
year = "2020",
month = may,
day = "16",
doi = "10.1029/2020GL087253",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "47",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "9",
}