@article{7e40815663ca4b5db96743ea65b3500a,
title = "Human heat stress could offset potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production under a high-emissions scenario",
abstract = "Climate change can significantly impact agriculture, leading to food security challenges. Most previous studies have investigated the direct climate impact on crops while neglecting the impact of heat stress on agricultural labor. Here, we assess the economic consequences of climate impacts on four major crops—maize, soybean, wheat, and rice—for scenarios involving low and high greenhouse gas emissions. Our analysis is based on the output from a new generation of global climate and crop models to drive a multiregional economic model. We find that, even under a high-emission scenario, the effect of CO2 fertilization could lead to higher yields, resulting in lower prices for major crops, except for maize. However, heat-induced losses in agricultural labor could offset the potential economic benefits of CO2 fertilization in crop production in Asia and Africa. Our findings emphasize the importance of addressing heat-stress impacts on agricultural labor through proactive adaptation measures.",
keywords = "agricultural labor, climate change, crop yields, heat stress, labor capacity, labor cost, labor productivity",
author = "Anton Orlov and Jonas J{\"a}germeyr and Christoph M{\"u}ller and Daloz, {Anne Sophie} and Florian Zabel and Sara Minoli and Wenfeng Liu and Lin, {Tzu Shun} and Jain, {Atul K.} and Christian Folberth and Masashi Okada and Benjamin Poschlod and Andrew Smerald and Schneider, {Julia M.} and Jana Sillmann",
note = "We want to thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments, which significantly enhanced the quality of our paper. A.O. and J.S. were funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 project \u201CRemote Climate Effects and their Impact on European Sustainability, Policy and Trade\u201D (RECEIPT) (grant agreement no. 820712). J.S. and B.P. were supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under Germany's Excellence Strategy\u2014EXC 2037: \u201CCLICCS \u2013 Climate, Climatic Change, and Society\u201D\u2014project no. 390683824, contribution to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universit\u00E4t Hamburg. T.-S.L. and A.K.J. were supported by the US NSF (831361857). M.O. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20S11805) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. W.L. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (52109071 and 52239002). A.O. conducted the analysis and wrote the paper. J.S. and A.S.D. developed the conceptual framing and commented on the manuscript. F.Z. provided the crop model simulations and hourly climate data. B.P. provided the hourly climate data and commented on the manuscript. J.J. C.M. S.M. W.L. T.-S.L. A.K.J. C.F. and M.O. provided the crop model simulations and commented on the manuscript. A.S. and J.M.S. provided the crop model simulations. The authors declare no competing interests. We want to thank two anonymous referees for their valuable comments, which significantly enhanced the quality of our paper. A.O. and J.S. were funded by the European Union Horizon 2020 project \u201CRemote Climate Effects and their Impact on European Sustainability, Policy and Trade\u201D (RECEIPT) (grant agreement no. 820712 ). J.S. and B.P. were supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG) under Germany\u2019s Excellence Strategy \u2014EXC 2037: \u201CCLICCS \u2013 Climate, Climatic Change, and Society\u201D\u2014project no. 390683824 , contribution to the Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN) of Universit\u00E4t Hamburg. T.-S.L. and A.K.J. were supported by the US NSF ( 831361857 ). M.O. was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund ( JPMEERF20S11805 ) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. W.L. was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( 52109071 and 52239002 ).",
year = "2024",
month = jul,
day = "19",
doi = "10.1016/j.oneear.2024.06.012",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "7",
pages = "1250--1265",
journal = "One Earth",
issn = "2590-3330",
publisher = "Cell Press",
number = "7",
}