@article{d0a0ba3f24a54cb6b3bd3167bd2979ec,
title = "How to Change the Weight of Rare Events in Decisions From Experience",
abstract = "When people make risky choices, two kinds of information are crucial: outcome values and outcome probabilities. Here, we demonstrate that the juncture at which value and probability information is provided has a fundamental effect on choice. Across four experiments involving 489 participants, we compared two decision-making scenarios: one in which value information was revealed during sampling (standard) and one in which value information was revealed after sampling (value ignorance). On average, participants made riskier choices when value information was provided after sampling. Moreover, parameter estimates from a hierarchical Bayesian implementation of cumulative-prospect theory suggested that participants overweighted rare events when value information was absent during sampling but did not overweight such events in the standard condition. This suggests that the impact of rare events on choice relies crucially on the timing of probability and value integration. We provide paths toward mechanistic explanations of our results based on frameworks that assume different underlying cognitive architectures.",
keywords = "cumulative-prospect theory, decision making, decisions from experience, description–experience gap, hierarchical Bayesian modeling, open data, open materials, preregistered, sampling",
author = "Hotaling, {Jared M.} and Andreas Jarvstad and Chris Donkin and Newell, {Ben R.}",
note = "Funding Information: We thank Garston Liang and Dominic Tran for help with data collection and Casimir Ludwig for valuable discussions. J. M. Hotaling, C. Donkin, and B. R. Newell were supported by the Australian Research Council (Grant No. DP160101186). A. Jarvstad was supported by a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellowship (No. PF150005). Funding Information: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7265-1310 Hotaling Jared M. 1 https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3175-8733 Jarvstad Andreas 2 3 Donkin Chris 1 Newell Ben R. 1 1 School of Psychology, University of New South Wales 2 Department of Psychology, University of Oxford 3 Department of Psychology, City, University of London Jared M. Hotaling, School of Psychology, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia E-mail: jaredhotaling@gmail.com 11 2019 0956797619884324 31 10 2018 14 9 2019 {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2019 2019 Association for Psychological Science When people make risky choices, two kinds of information are crucial: outcome values and outcome probabilities. Here, we demonstrate that the juncture at which value and probability information is provided has a fundamental effect on choice. Across four experiments involving 489 participants, we compared two decision-making scenarios: one in which value information was revealed during sampling ( standard ) and one in which value information was revealed after sampling ( value ignorance ). On average, participants made riskier choices when value information was provided after sampling. Moreover, parameter estimates from a hierarchical Bayesian implementation of cumulative-prospect theory suggested that participants overweighted rare events when value information was absent during sampling but did not overweight such events in the standard condition. This suggests that the impact of rare events on choice relies crucially on the timing of probability and value integration. We provide paths toward mechanistic explanations of our results based on frameworks that assume different underlying cognitive architectures. decisions from experience description–experience gap decision making sampling cumulative-prospect theory hierarchical Bayesian modeling open data open materials preregistered British Academy https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000286 D-MAD, PF150005 Australian Research Council https://doi.org/10.13039/501100000923 DP160101186 special-property open-data special-property open-materials special-property preregistration edited-state corrected-proof We thank Garston Liang and Dominic Tran for help with data collection and Casimir Ludwig for valuable discussions. Action Editor Timothy J. Pleskac served as action editor for this article. Author Contributions J. M. Hotaling and A. Jarvstad contributed equally to this research. A. Jarvstad and B. R. Newell conceived and designed Experiments 1 and 2. J. M. Hotaling, B. R. Newell, C. Donkin, and A. Jarvstad developed Experiments 3 and 4. A. Jarvstad wrote the software, and J. M. Hotaling modified it for Experiments 3 and 4. J. M. Hotaling and B. R. Newell supervised data collection. A. Jarvstad, J. M. Hotaling, C. Donkin, and B. R. Newell analyzed and interpreted the data. J. M. Hotaling wrote the first draft of the manuscript, and A. Jarvstad, B. R. Newell, and C. Donkin provided critical revisions. All authors approved the final version of the manuscript for submission. ORCID iDs Jared M. Hotaling https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7265-1310 Andreas Jarvstad https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3175-8733 Declaration of Conflicting Interests The author(s) declared that there were no conflicts of interest with respect to the authorship or the publication of this article. Funding J. M. Hotaling, C. Donkin, and B. R. Newell were supported by the Australian Research Council (Grant No. DP160101186). A. Jarvstad was supported by a British Academy Postdoctoral Fellowship (No. PF150005). Supplemental Material Additional supporting information can be found at http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/0956797619884324 Open Practices All data and materials have been made publicly available via the Open Science Framework and can be accessed at https://osf.io/ry75j . The methods, hypotheses, and analyses for Experiment 4 were preregistered on the Open Science Framework ( https://osf.io/zsbwt/ ). Specific plans for the model-based analysis of risk preferences and the statistical analysis of risky choices were developed after preregistration, and these are detailed in the text. The complete Open Practices Disclosure for this article can be found at http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/suppl/10.1177/0956797619884324 . This article has received the badges for Open Data, Open Materials, and Preregistration. More information about the Open Practices badges can be found at http://www.psychologicalscience.org/publications/badges Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2019.",
year = "2019",
month = dec,
day = "1",
doi = "10.1177/0956797619884324",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "30",
pages = "1767--1779",
journal = "Psychological Science",
issn = "0956-7976",
publisher = "SAGE Publishing",
number = "12",
}