How much could improving photosynthesis increase crop yields? A call for systems-level perspectives to guide engineering strategies

Global yield gaps can be reduced through breeding and improved agronomy. However, signs of yield plateaus from wheat and rice grown in intensively farmed systems indicate a need for new strategies if output is to continue to increase. Approaches to improve photosynthesis are suggested as a solution. Empirical evidence supporting this approach comes from small-scale free-CO₂ air enrichment and transgenic studies. However, the likely achievable gains from improving photosynthesis are less understood. Models predict maximum increases in yield of 5.3–19.1% from genetic manipulation depending on crop, environment, and approach, but uncertainty remains in the presence of stress. This review seeks to provide context to the rationale for improving photosynthesis, highlight areas of uncertainty, and identify the steps required to create more accurate projections.