How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?

D. Scolnic, R. Kessler, D. Brout, P. S. Cowperthwaite, M. Soares-Santos, J. Annis, K. Herner, H. Y. Chen, M. Sako, Z. Doctor, R. E. Butler, A. Palmese, H. T. Diehl, J. Frieman, D. E. Holz, E. Berger, R. Chornock, V. A. Villar, M. Nicholl, R. BiswasR. Hounsell, R. J. Foley, J. Metzger, A. Rest, J. García-Bellido, A. Möller, P. Nugent, T. M.C. Abbott, F. B. Abdalla, S. Allam, K. Bechtol, A. Benoit-Lévy, E. Bertin, D. Brooks, E. Buckley-Geer, A. Carnero Rosell, Matias Carrasco Kind, J. Carretero, F. J. Castander, C. E. Cunha, C. B. D'Andrea, L. N.Da Costa, C. Davis, P. Doel, A. Drlica-Wagner, T. F. Eifler, B. Flaugher, P. Fosalba, E. Gaztanaga, D. W. Gerdes, D. Gruen, R. A. Gruendl, J. Gschwend, G. Gutierrez, W. G. Hartley, K. Honscheid, D. J. James, M. W.G. Johnson, M. D. Johnson, E. Krause, K. Kuehn, S. Kuhlmann, O. Lahav, T. S. Li, M. Lima, M. A.G. Maia, M. March, J. L. Marshall, Felipe Menanteau, R. Miquel, E. Neilsen, A. A. Plazas, E. Sanchez, V. Scarpine, M. Schubnell, I. Sevilla-Noarbe, M. Smith, R. C. Smith, F. Sobreira, E. Suchyta, M. E.C. Swanson, G. Tarle, R. C. Thomas, D. L. Tucker, A. R. Walker

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article numberL3
JournalAstrophysical Journal Letters
Volume852
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2018

Fingerprint

LIGO (observatory)
light curve
estimates
Advanced Solid-State Array Spectroradiometer
deep drilling
astrophysics
drilling
gravitational waves
simulation
supernovae
contamination
templates
actuators
time series
requirements
sensitivity
detection
programme
rate

Keywords

  • stars: neutron

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Astronomy and Astrophysics
  • Space and Planetary Science

Cite this

Scolnic, D., Kessler, R., Brout, D., Cowperthwaite, P. S., Soares-Santos, M., Annis, J., ... Walker, A. R. (2018). How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets? Astrophysical Journal Letters, 852(1), [L3]. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82

How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets? / Scolnic, D.; Kessler, R.; Brout, D.; Cowperthwaite, P. S.; Soares-Santos, M.; Annis, J.; Herner, K.; Chen, H. Y.; Sako, M.; Doctor, Z.; Butler, R. E.; Palmese, A.; Diehl, H. T.; Frieman, J.; Holz, D. E.; Berger, E.; Chornock, R.; Villar, V. A.; Nicholl, M.; Biswas, R.; Hounsell, R.; Foley, R. J.; Metzger, J.; Rest, A.; García-Bellido, J.; Möller, A.; Nugent, P.; Abbott, T. M.C.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Bechtol, K.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Rosell, A. Carnero; Kind, Matias Carrasco; Carretero, J.; Castander, F. J.; Cunha, C. E.; D'Andrea, C. B.; Costa, L. N.Da; Davis, C.; Doel, P.; Drlica-Wagner, A.; Eifler, T. F.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Gaztanaga, E.; Gerdes, D. W.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gschwend, J.; Gutierrez, G.; Hartley, W. G.; Honscheid, K.; James, D. J.; Johnson, M. W.G.; Johnson, M. D.; Krause, E.; Kuehn, K.; Kuhlmann, S.; Lahav, O.; Li, T. S.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A.G.; March, M.; Marshall, J. L.; Menanteau, Felipe; Miquel, R.; Neilsen, E.; Plazas, A. A.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, M.; Smith, R. C.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E.C.; Tarle, G.; Thomas, R. C.; Tucker, D. L.; Walker, A. R.

In: Astrophysical Journal Letters, Vol. 852, No. 1, L3, 01.01.2018.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Scolnic, D, Kessler, R, Brout, D, Cowperthwaite, PS, Soares-Santos, M, Annis, J, Herner, K, Chen, HY, Sako, M, Doctor, Z, Butler, RE, Palmese, A, Diehl, HT, Frieman, J, Holz, DE, Berger, E, Chornock, R, Villar, VA, Nicholl, M, Biswas, R, Hounsell, R, Foley, RJ, Metzger, J, Rest, A, García-Bellido, J, Möller, A, Nugent, P, Abbott, TMC, Abdalla, FB, Allam, S, Bechtol, K, Benoit-Lévy, A, Bertin, E, Brooks, D, Buckley-Geer, E, Rosell, AC, Kind, MC, Carretero, J, Castander, FJ, Cunha, CE, D'Andrea, CB, Costa, LND, Davis, C, Doel, P, Drlica-Wagner, A, Eifler, TF, Flaugher, B, Fosalba, P, Gaztanaga, E, Gerdes, DW, Gruen, D, Gruendl, RA, Gschwend, J, Gutierrez, G, Hartley, WG, Honscheid, K, James, DJ, Johnson, MWG, Johnson, MD, Krause, E, Kuehn, K, Kuhlmann, S, Lahav, O, Li, TS, Lima, M, Maia, MAG, March, M, Marshall, JL, Menanteau, F, Miquel, R, Neilsen, E, Plazas, AA, Sanchez, E, Scarpine, V, Schubnell, M, Sevilla-Noarbe, I, Smith, M, Smith, RC, Sobreira, F, Suchyta, E, Swanson, MEC, Tarle, G, Thomas, RC, Tucker, DL & Walker, AR 2018, 'How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?', Astrophysical Journal Letters, vol. 852, no. 1, L3. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82
Scolnic D, Kessler R, Brout D, Cowperthwaite PS, Soares-Santos M, Annis J et al. How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets? Astrophysical Journal Letters. 2018 Jan 1;852(1). L3. https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/aa9d82
Scolnic, D. ; Kessler, R. ; Brout, D. ; Cowperthwaite, P. S. ; Soares-Santos, M. ; Annis, J. ; Herner, K. ; Chen, H. Y. ; Sako, M. ; Doctor, Z. ; Butler, R. E. ; Palmese, A. ; Diehl, H. T. ; Frieman, J. ; Holz, D. E. ; Berger, E. ; Chornock, R. ; Villar, V. A. ; Nicholl, M. ; Biswas, R. ; Hounsell, R. ; Foley, R. J. ; Metzger, J. ; Rest, A. ; García-Bellido, J. ; Möller, A. ; Nugent, P. ; Abbott, T. M.C. ; Abdalla, F. B. ; Allam, S. ; Bechtol, K. ; Benoit-Lévy, A. ; Bertin, E. ; Brooks, D. ; Buckley-Geer, E. ; Rosell, A. Carnero ; Kind, Matias Carrasco ; Carretero, J. ; Castander, F. J. ; Cunha, C. E. ; D'Andrea, C. B. ; Costa, L. N.Da ; Davis, C. ; Doel, P. ; Drlica-Wagner, A. ; Eifler, T. F. ; Flaugher, B. ; Fosalba, P. ; Gaztanaga, E. ; Gerdes, D. W. ; Gruen, D. ; Gruendl, R. A. ; Gschwend, J. ; Gutierrez, G. ; Hartley, W. G. ; Honscheid, K. ; James, D. J. ; Johnson, M. W.G. ; Johnson, M. D. ; Krause, E. ; Kuehn, K. ; Kuhlmann, S. ; Lahav, O. ; Li, T. S. ; Lima, M. ; Maia, M. A.G. ; March, M. ; Marshall, J. L. ; Menanteau, Felipe ; Miquel, R. ; Neilsen, E. ; Plazas, A. A. ; Sanchez, E. ; Scarpine, V. ; Schubnell, M. ; Sevilla-Noarbe, I. ; Smith, M. ; Smith, R. C. ; Sobreira, F. ; Suchyta, E. ; Swanson, M. E.C. ; Tarle, G. ; Thomas, R. C. ; Tucker, D. L. ; Walker, A. R. / How Many Kilonovae Can Be Found in Past, Present, and Future Survey Data Sets?. In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. 2018 ; Vol. 852, No. 1.
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abstract = "The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.",
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AU - Kessler, R.

AU - Brout, D.

AU - Cowperthwaite, P. S.

AU - Soares-Santos, M.

AU - Annis, J.

AU - Herner, K.

AU - Chen, H. Y.

AU - Sako, M.

AU - Doctor, Z.

AU - Butler, R. E.

AU - Palmese, A.

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AU - Berger, E.

AU - Chornock, R.

AU - Villar, V. A.

AU - Nicholl, M.

AU - Biswas, R.

AU - Hounsell, R.

AU - Foley, R. J.

AU - Metzger, J.

AU - Rest, A.

AU - García-Bellido, J.

AU - Möller, A.

AU - Nugent, P.

AU - Abbott, T. M.C.

AU - Abdalla, F. B.

AU - Allam, S.

AU - Bechtol, K.

AU - Benoit-Lévy, A.

AU - Bertin, E.

AU - Brooks, D.

AU - Buckley-Geer, E.

AU - Rosell, A. Carnero

AU - Kind, Matias Carrasco

AU - Carretero, J.

AU - Castander, F. J.

AU - Cunha, C. E.

AU - D'Andrea, C. B.

AU - Costa, L. N.Da

AU - Davis, C.

AU - Doel, P.

AU - Drlica-Wagner, A.

AU - Eifler, T. F.

AU - Flaugher, B.

AU - Fosalba, P.

AU - Gaztanaga, E.

AU - Gerdes, D. W.

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AU - Gruendl, R. A.

AU - Gschwend, J.

AU - Gutierrez, G.

AU - Hartley, W. G.

AU - Honscheid, K.

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AU - Johnson, M. W.G.

AU - Johnson, M. D.

AU - Krause, E.

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AU - Kuhlmann, S.

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AU - Li, T. S.

AU - Lima, M.

AU - Maia, M. A.G.

AU - March, M.

AU - Marshall, J. L.

AU - Menanteau, Felipe

AU - Miquel, R.

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AU - Plazas, A. A.

AU - Sanchez, E.

AU - Scarpine, V.

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AU - Sevilla-Noarbe, I.

AU - Smith, M.

AU - Smith, R. C.

AU - Sobreira, F.

AU - Suchyta, E.

AU - Swanson, M. E.C.

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AU - Thomas, R. C.

AU - Tucker, D. L.

AU - Walker, A. R.

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N2 - The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

AB - The discovery of a kilonova (KN) associated with the Advanced LIGO (aLIGO)/Virgo event GW170817 opens up new avenues of multi-messenger astrophysics. Here, using realistic simulations, we provide estimates of the number of KNe that could be found in data from past, present, and future surveys without a gravitational-wave trigger. For the simulation, we construct a spectral time-series model based on the DES-GW multi-band light curve from the single known KN event, and we use an average of BNS rates from past studies of 103Gpc-3 yr-1, consistent with the one event found so far. Examining past and current data sets from transient surveys, the number of KNe we expect to find for ASAS-SN, SDSS, PS1, SNLS, DES, and SMT is between 0 and 0.3. We predict the number of detections per future survey to be 8.3 from ATLAS, 10.6 from ZTF, 5.5/69 from LSST (the Deep Drilling/Wide Fast Deep), and 16.0 from WFIRST. The maximum redshift of KNe discovered for each survey is z=0.8 for WFIRST, z=0.8 for LSST, and z=0.8 for ZTF and ATLAS. This maximum redshift for WFIRST is well beyond the sensitivity of aLIGO and some future GW missions. For the LSST survey, we also provide contamination estimates from Type Ia and core-collapse supernovae: after light curve and template-matching requirements, we estimate a background of just two events. More broadly, we stress that future transient surveys should consider how to optimize their search strategies to improve their detection efficiency and to consider similar analyses for GW follow-up programs.

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