How Financial Resilience Affects Social and Public Health Policy Choices in Sub-Saharan Africa: Empirical Insights from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Objective: Scant evidence exists of how governments in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries consider the economic vulnerability of their populaces when instituting initial social control policies. This study examined possible clusters of financial resilience among SSA countries and how these clusters predicted the length of social control policies. Methods: We harmonized country-level financial resilience data from the World Bank’s 2019 Global Findex database, data on COVID-19 cases from the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, and social control data from governments’ press releases. Multivariate cluster analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR) were used to assess the level of savings, domestic remittance, self-employment, wages, emergency funds, and agricultural income – all predictors of financial resilience. Results: We found two clusters of financial resilience: 41% of countries were financially resilient, while 59% were not. We also found that financial resilience profiles were predictive of longer durations of initial social control policies, but in varying directions and in degrees depending on the country. Conclusion: The study sheds light on the heterogeneity of financial resilience among SSA countries and extends our knowledge of financial resilience, vis-a-vis pandemic responses. Social protection programs must be developed and implemented to help populaces cope during and after the pandemic.