How and why the Cold War became a long peace: Some statistical insights

John A. Vasquez, Choong Nam Kang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


A data-based analysis of how and why the long peace of the Cold War occurred. The analysis tests a proposition originally suggested by Senese and Vasquez (2008) that alliance polarization played an important role in producing the long peace, because in the 1816-1945 and post-Cold War periods, both sides having outside alliances was positively associated with the escalation of a militarized interstate dispute (MID) to war and in the Cold War it was negatively related. New hypotheses are derived to test this claim. Tests of two hypotheses support the claim that alliance polarization played a key role in the long peace, even when controlling for the presence of nuclear weapons.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)28-50
Number of pages23
JournalCooperation and Conflict
Issue number1
StatePublished - Mar 2013


  • Cold War
  • alliances
  • long peace
  • militarized disputes
  • polarization
  • steps to war
  • territory

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Development
  • Political Science and International Relations
  • General Social Sciences


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