Going by the Numbers: Learning and Modeling COVID-19 Disease Dynamics

Sayantani Basu, Roy H. Campbell

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The COrona VIrus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV2) has resulted in a challenging number of infections and deaths worldwide. In order to combat the pandemic, several countries worldwide enforced mitigation measures in the forms of lockdowns, social distancing, and disinfection measures. In an effort to understand the dynamics of this disease, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) based model. We train our model on more than four months of cumulative COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our model can be adjusted based on the parameters in order to provide predictions as needed. We provide results at both the country and county levels. We also perform a quantitative comparison of mitigation measures in various counties in the United States based on the rate of difference of a short and long window parameter of the proposed LSTM model. The analyses provided by our model can provide valuable insights based on the trends in the rate of infections and deaths. This can also be of help for countries and counties deciding on mitigation and reopening strategies. We believe that the results obtained from the proposed method will contribute to societal benefits for a current global concern.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Article number110140
Number of pages14
JournalChaos, solitons and fractals
Volume138
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 2020

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Disease dynamics
  • Long short-term memory (LSTM)
  • Mitigation measures
  • Social distancing

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
  • Mathematics(all)
  • Physics and Astronomy(all)
  • Applied Mathematics

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