Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment

Tatsuya Sakurahara, Zahra Mohaghegh, Seyed Reihani, Ernie Kee

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In this line of research, the authors have developed an advanced PRA methodology, the Integrated PRA (I-PRA) framework, which explicitly incorporates the underlying failure mechanisms into PRA scenarios by integrating the spatio-temporal simulation of underlying physical and social phenomena with classical PRA. The focus of this paper is on developing an Importance Measure (IM) method for I-PRA. The classical IM methods (e.g., Fussell-Vesely IM and Risk Achievement Worth), which are common in the PRA field, are not adequate for I-PRA because they only focus on the risk ranking of components. In I-PRA, the risk importance ranking of input parameters within the simulation models needs to be analyzed and, for that purpose, a moment-independent Global IM, the cdf-based sensitivity indicator Si(CDF), is selected and tailored for the I-PRA framework. This IM method can capture three key aspects of the I-PRA model: (i) uncertainty associated with the input parameters, (ii) uncertainty of risk outputs, and (iii) non-linearity and interactions among input parameters within the simulation model. This paper shows the progress of the ongoing research, and a case study using a reduced-order I-PRA to demonstrate the feasibility of implementing the Global IM method in a realistic PRA application, is presented.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationInternational Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
PublisherAmerican Nuclear Society
Pages173-181
Number of pages9
ISBN (Electronic)9781510851801
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017
Event2017 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017 - Pittsburgh, United States
Duration: Sep 24 2017Sep 28 2017

Publication series

NameInternational Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
Volume1

Other

Other2017 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017
CountryUnited States
CityPittsburgh
Period9/24/179/28/17

Fingerprint

Risk Assessment
Risk assessment
Methodology
Ranking
Simulation Model
Uncertainty
Failure Mechanism
Integrated Model
Integrated
Nonlinearity
Moment
Scenarios
Line
Output
Interaction
Demonstrate
Simulation

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
  • Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty
  • Statistics and Probability
  • Nuclear Energy and Engineering

Cite this

Sakurahara, T., Mohaghegh, Z., Reihani, S., & Kee, E. (2017). Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment. In International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017 (pp. 173-181). (International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017; Vol. 1). American Nuclear Society.

Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment. / Sakurahara, Tatsuya; Mohaghegh, Zahra; Reihani, Seyed; Kee, Ernie.

International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017. American Nuclear Society, 2017. p. 173-181 (International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017; Vol. 1).

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Sakurahara, T, Mohaghegh, Z, Reihani, S & Kee, E 2017, Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment. in International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017. International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017, vol. 1, American Nuclear Society, pp. 173-181, 2017 International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017, Pittsburgh, United States, 9/24/17.
Sakurahara T, Mohaghegh Z, Reihani S, Kee E. Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment. In International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017. American Nuclear Society. 2017. p. 173-181. (International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017).
Sakurahara, Tatsuya ; Mohaghegh, Zahra ; Reihani, Seyed ; Kee, Ernie. / Global importance measure methodology for integrated probabilistic risk assessment. International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017. American Nuclear Society, 2017. pp. 173-181 (International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Analysis, PSA 2017).
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