Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling

Robert J. Trapp, Kimberly A. Hoogewind, Sonia Lasher-Trapp

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (*35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (*50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (*20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)5493-5509
Number of pages17
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume32
Issue number17
DOIs
StatePublished - Sep 1 2019

Fingerprint

hail
downscaling
convection
summer
greenhouse gas
melting
atmosphere

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

Cite this

Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling. / Trapp, Robert J.; Hoogewind, Kimberly A.; Lasher-Trapp, Sonia.

In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, No. 17, 01.09.2019, p. 5493-5509.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{c0bfa128afb04a26bbda3b22c3ed7f0f,
title = "Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling",
abstract = "The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (*35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (*50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (*20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.",
author = "Trapp, {Robert J.} and Hoogewind, {Kimberly A.} and Sonia Lasher-Trapp",
year = "2019",
month = "9",
day = "1",
doi = "10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.1",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "32",
pages = "5493--5509",
journal = "Journal of Climate",
issn = "0894-8755",
publisher = "American Meteorological Society",
number = "17",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling

AU - Trapp, Robert J.

AU - Hoogewind, Kimberly A.

AU - Lasher-Trapp, Sonia

PY - 2019/9/1

Y1 - 2019/9/1

N2 - The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (*35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (*50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (*20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.

AB - The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (*35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (*50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (*20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85074641049&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85074641049&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.1

DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.1

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85074641049

VL - 32

SP - 5493

EP - 5509

JO - Journal of Climate

JF - Journal of Climate

SN - 0894-8755

IS - 17

ER -