Abstract
The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (*35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (*50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (*20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 5493-5509 |
| Number of pages | 17 |
| Journal | Journal of Climate |
| Volume | 32 |
| Issue number | 17 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Sep 1 2019 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Atmospheric Science
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Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling. / Trapp, Robert J.; Hoogewind, Kimberly A.; Lasher-Trapp, Sonia.
In: Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, No. 17, 01.09.2019, p. 5493-5509.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Future changes in hail occurrence in the United States determined through convection-permitting dynamical downscaling
AU - Trapp, Robert J.
AU - Hoogewind, Kimberly A.
AU - Lasher-Trapp, Sonia
PY - 2019/9/1
Y1 - 2019/9/1
N2 - The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (*35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (*50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (*20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.
AB - The effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (*35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (*50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (*20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85074641049&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85074641049&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.1
DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0740.1
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85074641049
VL - 32
SP - 5493
EP - 5509
JO - Journal of Climate
JF - Journal of Climate
SN - 0894-8755
IS - 17
ER -