Future atmospheric methane concentrations in the context of the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations

Tropospheric CH₄ concentration depends, according to modeled tropospheric processes, on many factors, including emissions of CH₄ as well as NO_x and CO. Illustrative analyses of the relation between emissions and CH₄ concentration give some guidance on the role of CH₄ in the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations. The contribution of CH₄ to radiative forcing at the time of stabilization is expected to be modest, provided CH₄ and CO emissions do not go far beyond current rates. However, in cases leading to stabilization the potential mitigation of increases in radiative forcing by methane control could be comparable to that of CO₂ control over the next century. Whether or not this potential is realized will depend partially on the cost of deep reductions of CH₄, NO_x, CO, or CO₂ emissions over the next century, which is not known.