TY - JOUR
T1 - Forecasting in a small and unstable regional economy using regime shifting models
T2 - The case of extremadura
AU - Márquez, Miguel Angel
AU - Ramajo, Julian
AU - Hewings, Geoffrey J.D.
PY - 2003/4
Y1 - 2003/4
N2 - We consider forecasting in a small and unstable regional economy subject to structural breaks. In this context, we work with two types of regime-shifting databased models rising cointegration theory. The objective of the present work is to analyze the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the two approaches used to construct a short-term regional econometric model: stochastic and deterministic time varying parameters models. The forecasting experiments will be illustrated by specifying and estimating an econometric model for Extremadura, a small and unstable region in southwestern Spain.
AB - We consider forecasting in a small and unstable regional economy subject to structural breaks. In this context, we work with two types of regime-shifting databased models rising cointegration theory. The objective of the present work is to analyze the out-of-sample forecasting performance of the two approaches used to construct a short-term regional econometric model: stochastic and deterministic time varying parameters models. The forecasting experiments will be illustrated by specifying and estimating an econometric model for Extremadura, a small and unstable region in southwestern Spain.
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U2 - 10.1111/j.1538-4632.2003.tb01104.x
DO - 10.1111/j.1538-4632.2003.tb01104.x
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:0042570697
SN - 0016-7363
VL - 35
SP - 110
EP - 132
JO - Geographical Analysis
JF - Geographical Analysis
IS - 2
ER -