Food for thought: Lower-than-expected crop yield stimulation with rising CO2 concentrations

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Abstract

Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by ∼50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1918-1921
Number of pages4
JournalScience
Volume312
Issue number5782
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 30 2006

ASJC Scopus subject areas

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