Fast Online Value-Maximizing Prediction Sets with Conformal Cost Control

Zhen Lin, Shubhendu Trivedi, Cao Xiao, Jimeng Sun

Research output: Contribution to journalConference articlepeer-review

Abstract

Many real-world multi-label prediction problems involve set-valued predictions that must satisfy specific requirements dictated by downstream usage. We focus on a typical scenario where such requirements, separately encoding value and cost, compete with each other. For instance, a hospital might expect a smart diagnosis system to capture as many severe, often co-morbid, diseases as possible (the value), while maintaining strict control over incorrect predictions (the cost). We present a general pipeline, dubbed as FavMac, to maximize the value while controlling the cost in such scenarios. FavMac can be combined with almost any multi-label classifier, affording distribution-free theoretical guarantees on cost control. Moreover, unlike prior works, it can handle real-world large-scale applications via a carefully designed online update mechanism, which is of independent interest. Our methodological and theoretical contributions are supported by experiments on several healthcare tasks and synthetic datasets - FavMac furnishes higher value compared with several variants and baselines while maintaining strict cost control. Our code is available at https://github.com/zlin7/FavMac.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)21182-21203
Number of pages22
JournalProceedings of Machine Learning Research
Volume202
StatePublished - 2023
Externally publishedYes
Event40th International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2023 - Honolulu, United States
Duration: Jul 23 2023Jul 29 2023

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Software
  • Control and Systems Engineering
  • Statistics and Probability

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