@article{fcf3e27c7f334b9ebd97497ba1f8e4b2,
title = "Explaining long-term outcome trajectories in social–ecological systems",
abstract = "Improved knowledge of long-term social and environmental trends and their drivers in coupled human and natural systems is needed to guide nature and society along a more sustainable trajectory. Here we combine common property theory and experimental impact evaluation methods to develop an approach for analyzing long-term outcome trajectories in social–ecological systems (SESs). We constructed robust counterfactual scenarios for observed vegetation outcome trajectories in the Indian Himalaya using synthetic control matching. This approach enabled us to quantify the contribution of a set of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in shaping observed outcomes. Results show the relative importance of baseline vegetation condition, governance, and demographic change in predicting long-term ecological outcomes. More generally, the findings suggest the broad potential utility of our approach to analyze long-term outcome trajectories, target new policy interventions, and assess the impacts of policies on sustainability goals in SESs across the globe.",
author = "Pushpendra Rana and Miller, {Daniel C.}",
note = "Funding Information: Funding for this work was provided by the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Hatch project no. 1009327 to DCM and McIntire-Stennis project no. 1-600418-875000-875912 to DCM. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. We are grateful to Himachal Pradesh Forest Department for sharing data. We thank Kangjae Lee and Hsin-Chieh Hsieh for research assistance and Joanna Broderick for editorial assistance. We also thank Sarah Brown, Mark Buntaine, participants at the 2018 World Congress of Environmental and Resource Economists in Gothenburg, Sweden, and two anonymous reviewers for helpful comments for helpful comments that strengthened this work. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 Rana, Miller. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.",
year = "2019",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1371/journal.pone.0215230",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "14",
journal = "PloS one",
issn = "1932-6203",
publisher = "Public Library of Science",
number = "4",
}