TY - JOUR
T1 - Expected Impact of Rubin Observatory LSST on NEO Follow-up
AU - Wagg, Tom
AU - Juric, Mario
AU - Yoachim, Peter
AU - Kurlander, Jake
AU - Cornwall, Sam
AU - Moeyens, Joachim
AU - Eggl, Siegfried
AU - Jones, R. Lynne
AU - Birtwhistle, Peter
N1 - This material is based upon work supported in part by the National Science Foundation through Cooperative Agreement AST-1258333 and Cooperative Support Agreement AST-1202910 managed by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA), and the Department of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-76SF00515 with the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory managed by Stanford University. Additional Rubin Observatory funding comes from private donations, grants to universities, and in-kind support from LSSTC Institutional Members. S.E. acknowledges support by the National Science Foundation through Award AST-2307570.
The authors further acknowledge the support from the University of Washington College of Arts and Sciences, Department of Astronomy, and the DiRAC Institute. The DiRAC Institute is supported through generous gifts from the Charles and Lisa Simonyi Fund for Arts and Sciences and the Washington Research Foundation. M.J. wishes to acknowledge the support of the Washington Research Foundation Data Science Term Chair fund, and the University of Washington Provost\u2019s Initiative in Data-Intensive Discovery. This work was facilitated through the use of advanced computational, storage, and networking infrastructure provided by the Hyak supercomputer system at the University of Washington.
PY - 2025/6/2
Y1 - 2025/6/2
N2 - We simulate and analyze the contribution of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to the rate of discovery of near-Earth-object (NEO) candidates, their submission rates to the NEO Confirmation page (NEOCP), and the resulting demands on the worldwide NEO follow-up observation system. We find that, when using current NEOCP listing criteria, Rubin will typically contribute ∼129 new objects to the NEOCP each night in the first year, an increase of relative to present day. Only 8.3% of the objects listed for follow-up will be NEOs, with the primary contaminant being a background of yet undiscovered, faint, main-belt asteroids. We consider follow-up prioritisation strategies to lessen the impact on the NEO follow-up system. We develop an algorithm that predicts (with 68% accuracy) whether Rubin itself will self recover any given tracklet; external follow-up of such candidates can be deprioritized. With this algorithm enabled, the follow-up list would be reduced to 64 NEO candidates per night (with ∼8.4% purity). We propose additional criteria based on trailing, apparent magnitude, and ecliptic latitude to further prioritize follow-up. We hope observation planners and brokers will adopt some of these open-source algorithms, enabling the follow-up community to effectively keep up with the NEOCP in the early years of LSST.
AB - We simulate and analyze the contribution of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) to the rate of discovery of near-Earth-object (NEO) candidates, their submission rates to the NEO Confirmation page (NEOCP), and the resulting demands on the worldwide NEO follow-up observation system. We find that, when using current NEOCP listing criteria, Rubin will typically contribute ∼129 new objects to the NEOCP each night in the first year, an increase of relative to present day. Only 8.3% of the objects listed for follow-up will be NEOs, with the primary contaminant being a background of yet undiscovered, faint, main-belt asteroids. We consider follow-up prioritisation strategies to lessen the impact on the NEO follow-up system. We develop an algorithm that predicts (with 68% accuracy) whether Rubin itself will self recover any given tracklet; external follow-up of such candidates can be deprioritized. With this algorithm enabled, the follow-up list would be reduced to 64 NEO candidates per night (with ∼8.4% purity). We propose additional criteria based on trailing, apparent magnitude, and ecliptic latitude to further prioritize follow-up. We hope observation planners and brokers will adopt some of these open-source algorithms, enabling the follow-up community to effectively keep up with the NEOCP in the early years of LSST.
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U2 - 10.3847/1538-3881/adc89f
DO - 10.3847/1538-3881/adc89f
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:105005764014
SN - 0004-6256
VL - 169
JO - Astronomical Journal
JF - Astronomical Journal
IS - 6
M1 - 315
ER -