@article{ab6013c97a684c76a2c37854ce9700e6,
title = "Executive orders or public fear: What caused transit ridership to drop in Chicago during COVID-19?",
abstract = "The COVID-19 pandemic has induced significant transit ridership losses worldwide. This paper conducts a quantitative analysis to reveal contributing factors to such losses, using data from the Chicago Transit Authority's bus and rail systems before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. It builds a sequential statistical modeling framework that integrates a Bayesian structural time-series model, a dynamics model, and a series of linear regression models, to fit the ridership loss with pandemic evolution and regulatory events, and to quantify how the impacts of those factors depend on socio-demographic characteristics. Results reveal that, for both bus and rail, remote learning/working answers for the majority of ridership loss, and their impacts depend highly on socio-demographic characteristics. Findings from this study cast insights into future evolution of transit ridership as well as recovery campaigns in the post-pandemic era.",
keywords = "Bayesian structural time series, COVID-19, Dynamics model, Mobility, Regression analysis, Remote work, Ridership recovery, Telecommute, Transit ridership",
author = "Jesus Osorio and Yining Liu and Yanfeng Ouyang",
note = "The authors thank the editors and the reviewers for providing very helpful comments on the paper. This research was supported in part by the Illinois Department of Transportation via Illinois Center for Transportation project ICT R27-SP45. The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable feedback from all members of the Technical Review Panel, led by Mr. Charles Abraham (Illinois Department of Transportation) and Ms. Jessica Hector-Hsu (Regional Transit Authority). The contents of this paper reflect the view of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the Illinois Center for Transportation, the Illinois Department of Transportation, or the Federal Highway Administration. This paper does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. The authors thank the editors and the reviewers for providing very helpful comments on the paper. This research was supported in part by the Illinois Department of Transportation via Illinois Center for Transportation project ICT R27-SP45. The authors gratefully acknowledge the valuable feedback from all members of the Technical Review Panel, led by Mr. Charles Abraham (Illinois Department of Transportation) and Ms. Jessica Hector-Hsu (Regional Transit Authority). The contents of this paper reflect the view of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the Illinois Center for Transportation, the Illinois Department of Transportation, or the Federal Highway Administration. This paper does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation.",
year = "2022",
month = apr,
doi = "10.1016/j.trd.2022.103226",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "105",
journal = "Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment",
issn = "1361-9209",
publisher = "Elsevier Ltd",
}