@article{5a71e48b7d82448abcbb84a67646861e,
title = "Excessive rainfall leads to maize yield loss of a comparable magnitude to extreme drought in the United States",
abstract = "Increasing drought and extreme rainfall are major threats to maize production in the United States. However, compared to drought impact, the impact of excessive rainfall on crop yield remains unresolved. Here, we present observational evidence from crop yield and insurance data that excessive rainfall can reduce maize yield up to −34% (−17 ± 3% on average) in the United States relative to the expected yield from the long-term trend, comparable to the up to −37% loss by extreme drought (−32 ± 2% on average) from 1981 to 2016. Drought consistently decreases maize yield due to water deficiency and concurrent heat, with greater yield loss for rainfed maize in wetter areas. Excessive rainfall can have either negative or positive impact on crop yield, and its sign varies regionally. Excessive rainfall decreases maize yield significantly in cooler areas in conjunction with poorly drained soils, and such yield loss gets exacerbated under the condition of high preseason soil water storage. Current process-based crop models cannot capture the yield loss from excessive rainfall and overestimate yield under wet conditions. Our results highlight the need for improved understanding and modeling of the excessive rainfall impact on crop yield.",
keywords = "crop model, drought, extreme climate, extreme rainfall, maize production",
author = "Yan Li and Kaiyu Guan and Schnitkey, {Gary D.} and Evan DeLucia and Bin Peng",
note = "Funding Information: We thank David Lobell for helpful comments on an early version of the manuscript, Kathy Partlow for editing of the manuscript, and Wang Zhou for providing the tile drainage data. The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments. Y.L., K.G., and B.P. acknowledge support from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) Foundational Program award (2017-67013-26253, 2017-68002-26789, 2017-67003-28703). Y.L. acknowledges support from the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology. K.G. and E.D. also acknowledge support from the DOE Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under Award Number DE-SC0018420). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Energy. Funding Information: We thank David Lobell for helpful comments on an early version of the manuscript, Kathy Partlow for editing of the manuscript, and Wang Zhou for providing the tile drainage data. The authors thank the two anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments. Y.L., K.G., and B.P. acknowledge support from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) Foundational Program award (2017‐67013‐26253, 2017‐68002‐26789, 2017‐67003‐28703). Y.L. acknowledges support from the State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology. K.G. and E.D. also ac‐ knowledge support from the DOE Center for Advanced Bioenergy and Bioproducts Innovation (U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research under Award Number DE‐SC0018420). Any opinions, findings, and conclu‐ sions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of Energy. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2019 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd",
year = "2019",
month = jul,
doi = "10.1111/gcb.14628",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "25",
pages = "2325--2337",
journal = "Global change biology",
issn = "1354-1013",
publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",
number = "7",
}