Evaluation of water use structure and regulation to balance supply and demand in the Nansi Lake basin, China

In an established water supply system, the increasing demand for water resources caused by economic growth becomes a key issue for water resource management in China. From the water demand management perspective, this paper analyzed the mechanism of internal feedbacks among water resources, population, and economic mutual effects and established a system dynamics model to simulate the evolution and regulation of water use structure under the business-as-usual, and the high, middle, and low economic growth strategies in the Nansi Lake basin. This study showed although the regulation strategy of the middle scheme production structure can improve water use structure without impeding economy growth, the supply of water cannot meet the demand in the basin. However, a comprehensive regulation strategy can address this water shortage. By optimizing the water use structure, this comprehensive regulation strategy can lower quota of water uses and improve the efficiency of agricultural irrigation and production thus to balance water supply and demand in the basin.