Evaluating spatial accessibility to healthcare services under travel time uncertainty: A reliability-based floating catchment area approach

Most existing healthcare accessibility studies ignore the travel time uncertainty that are commonly encountered in road networks. This study aims to examine the impacts of travel time uncertainty on healthcare accessibility. A reliability-based two-step floating catchment area (2SFCA) method is proposed to evaluate healthcare accessibility under travel time uncertainty. The proposed measure generalizes the conventional 2SFCA measure by explicitly considering individuals' reliability constraints when scheduling visits to healthcare facilities in the face of travel time uncertainty. The proposed measure is further used to investigate travel time uncertainty impacts in a comprehensive case study. A big dataset of taxi trajectories is collected in the case study to extract dynamic information on travel time distributions. The results of the case study highlight the significant but heterogeneous impacts of travel time uncertainty on healthcare accessibility for various parts of the city at different times of the day. They also have several methodological implications for the evaluation of healthcare accessibility under travel time uncertainty.