Enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades

Pamela R. Grothe; Kim M. Cobb; Giovanni Liguori; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Antonietta Capotondi; Yanbin Lu; Hai Cheng; R. Lawrence Edwards; John R. Southon; Guaciara M. Santos; Daniel M. Deocampo; Jean Lynch-Stieglitz; Tianran Chen; Hussein R. Sayani; Diane M. Thompson; Jessica L. Conroy; Andrea L. Moore; Kayla Townsend; Melat Hagos; Gemma O'Connor; Lauren T. Toth

doi:10.1029/2019GL083906

Enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades

Pamela R. Grothe, Kim M. Cobb, Giovanni Liguori, Emanuele Di Lorenzo, Antonietta Capotondi, Yanbin Lu, Hai Cheng, R. Lawrence Edwards, John R. Southon, Guaciara M. Santos, Daniel M. Deocampo, Jean Lynch-Stieglitz, Tianran Chen, Hussein R. Sayani, Diane M. Thompson, Jessica L. Conroy, Andrea L. Moore, Kayla Townsend, Melat Hagos, Gemma O'ConnorLauren T. Toth

Research output: Contribution to journal › Letter › peer-review

Abstract

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	e2019GL083906
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	47
Issue number	7
Early online date	Apr 4 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083906
State	Published - Apr 16 2020

Keywords

El Niño–Southern Oscillation
Holocene climate change
anthropogenic climate change
coral paleoclimate

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Geophysics
General Earth and Planetary Sciences

Online availability

10.1029/2019GL083906

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Grothe, P. R., Cobb, K. M., Liguori, G., Di Lorenzo, E., Capotondi, A., Lu, Y., Cheng, H., Edwards, R. L., Southon, J. R., Santos, G. M., Deocampo, D. M., Lynch-Stieglitz, J., Chen, T., Sayani, H. R., Thompson, D. M., Conroy, J. L., Moore, A. L., Townsend, K., Hagos, M., ... Toth, L. T. (2020). Enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(7), Article e2019GL083906. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083906

Grothe, PR, Cobb, KM, Liguori, G, Di Lorenzo, E, Capotondi, A, Lu, Y, Cheng, H, Edwards, RL, Southon, JR, Santos, GM, Deocampo, DM, Lynch-Stieglitz, J, Chen, T, Sayani, HR, Thompson, DM, Conroy, JL, Moore, AL, Townsend, K, Hagos, M, O'Connor, G & Toth, LT 2020, 'Enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 47, no. 7, e2019GL083906. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083906

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abstract = "The El Ni{\~n}o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.",

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AU - Grothe, Pamela R.

AU - Cobb, Kim M.

AU - Liguori, Giovanni

AU - Di Lorenzo, Emanuele

AU - Capotondi, Antonietta

AU - Lu, Yanbin

AU - Cheng, Hai

AU - Edwards, R. Lawrence

AU - Southon, John R.

AU - Santos, Guaciara M.

AU - Deocampo, Daniel M.

AU - Lynch-Stieglitz, Jean

AU - Chen, Tianran

AU - Sayani, Hussein R.

AU - Thompson, Diane M.

AU - Conroy, Jessica L.

AU - Moore, Andrea L.

AU - Townsend, Kayla

AU - Hagos, Melat

AU - O'Connor, Gemma

AU - Toth, Lauren T.

PY - 2020/4/16

Y1 - 2020/4/16

N2 - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.

AB - The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.

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KW - Holocene climate change

KW - anthropogenic climate change

KW - coral paleoclimate

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Enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation Variability in Recent Decades

Abstract

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