Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic: Analysis with a quarterly CGE model

Peter B. Dixon; Bumsoo Lee; Todd Muehlenbeck; Maureen T. Rimmer; Adam Rose; George Verikios

doi:10.2202/1547-7355.1769

Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic: Analysis with a quarterly CGE model

Peter B. Dixon, Bumsoo Lee, Todd Muehlenbeck, Maureen T. Rimmer, Adam Rose, George Verikios

Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial › peer-review

Abstract

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	75
Journal	Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Volume	7
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1769
State	Published - Jan 28 2010

Keywords

Influenza epidemic
Quarterly CGE model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Safety Research

Online availability

10.2202/1547-7355.1769

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title = "Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic: Analysis with a quarterly CGE model",

abstract = "We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.",

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author = "Dixon, {Peter B.} and Bumsoo Lee and Todd Muehlenbeck and Rimmer, {Maureen T.} and Adam Rose and George Verikios",

note = "Funding Information: Author Notes: This research was supported by the United States Department of Homeland Security through the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) under grant number 2007-ST-061-000001. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor. We thank Josh Epstein for providing an H1N1 scenario and for helpful discussions. He, of course, is not responsible for conclusions and shortcomings in our paper.",

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doi = "10.2202/1547-7355.1769",

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T2 - Analysis with a quarterly CGE model

AU - Dixon, Peter B.

AU - Lee, Bumsoo

AU - Muehlenbeck, Todd

AU - Rimmer, Maureen T.

AU - Rose, Adam

AU - Verikios, George

N1 - Funding Information: Author Notes: This research was supported by the United States Department of Homeland Security through the National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) under grant number 2007-ST-061-000001. Any opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations in this document are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsor. We thank Josh Epstein for providing an H1N1 scenario and for helpful discussions. He, of course, is not responsible for conclusions and shortcomings in our paper.

PY - 2010/1/28

Y1 - 2010/1/28

N2 - We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

AB - We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

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KW - Quarterly CGE model

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Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic: Analysis with a quarterly CGE model

Abstract

Keywords

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