Abstract
We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Article number | 75 |
| Journal | Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management |
| Volume | 7 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 28 2010 |
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Keywords
- Influenza epidemic
- Quarterly CGE model
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)
- Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
- Safety Research
Cite this
Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic : Analysis with a quarterly CGE model. / Dixon, Peter B.; Lee, Bumsoo; Muehlenbeck, Todd; Rimmer, Maureen T.; Rose, Adam; Verikios, George.
In: Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Vol. 7, No. 1, 75, 28.01.2010.Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic
T2 - Analysis with a quarterly CGE model
AU - Dixon, Peter B.
AU - Lee, Bumsoo
AU - Muehlenbeck, Todd
AU - Rimmer, Maureen T.
AU - Rose, Adam
AU - Verikios, George
PY - 2010/1/28
Y1 - 2010/1/28
N2 - We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.
AB - We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.
KW - Influenza epidemic
KW - Quarterly CGE model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=82455253514&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=82455253514&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.2202/1547-7355.1769
DO - 10.2202/1547-7355.1769
M3 - Editorial
AN - SCOPUS:82455253514
VL - 7
JO - Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
JF - Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
SN - 1547-7355
IS - 1
M1 - 75
ER -