Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic: Analysis with a quarterly CGE model

Peter B. Dixon; Bumsoo Lee; Todd Muehlenbeck; Maureen T. Rimmer; Adam Rose; George Verikios

doi:10.2202/1547-7355.1769

Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic: Analysis with a quarterly CGE model

Peter B. Dixon, Bumsoo Lee, Todd Muehlenbeck, Maureen T. Rimmer, Adam Rose, George Verikios

Urban and Regional Planning

Research output: Contribution to journal › Editorial

Abstract

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Original language	English (US)
Article number	75
Journal	Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management
Volume	7
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1769
State	Published - Jan 28 2010

Keywords

Influenza epidemic
Quarterly CGE model

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Business, Management and Accounting (miscellaneous)
Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality
Safety Research

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Dixon, P. B., Lee, B., Muehlenbeck, T., Rimmer, M. T., Rose, A., & Verikios, G. (2010). Effects on the U.S. Of an H1N1 epidemic: Analysis with a quarterly CGE model. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, 7(1), [75]. https://doi.org/10.2202/1547-7355.1769

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AU - Verikios, George

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