Economic evaluation of commodity price forecasting models

Mary E. Gerlow, Scott H. Irwin, Te Ru Liu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Price forecasts are typically evaluated on the basis of statistical criteria, such as mean error, mean absolute error, or root mean squared error. An alternative approach for evaluating price forecasts is to analyze them using economic criteria. Four types of economic criteria are applied to five quarterly hog price forecasting models over the period 1976:I-1985:IV. In general, model evaluations under the different economic criteria are consistent with one another. However, the economic evaluations are not consistent with those found using traditional statistical evaluation.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)387-397
Number of pages11
JournalInternational Journal of Forecasting
Issue number3
StatePublished - Nov 1993
Externally publishedYes


  • Commodity prices
  • Economic
  • Evaluation
  • Forecasting
  • Market timing

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business and International Management


Dive into the research topics of 'Economic evaluation of commodity price forecasting models'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this