@article{1b54c680559340338336f15303781ee8,
title = "Dynamical Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Activity: Robust Assessment of Prediction Skill and Predictability",
abstract = "Improving the seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity demands a robust analysis of the prediction skill and the inherent predictability of TC activity. Using the resampling technique, this study analyzes a state-of-the-art prediction system and offers a robust assessment of when and where the seasonal prediction of TC activity is skillful. We found that uncertainties of initial conditions affect the predictions and the skill evaluation significantly. The sensitivity of predictions to initial conditions also suggests that landfall and high-latitude activity are inherently harder to predict. The lower predictability is consistent with the relatively low prediction skill in these regions. Additionally, the lower predictability is largely related to the atmospheric environment rather than the sea surface temperature, at least for the predictions initialized shortly before the hurricane season. These findings suggest the potential for improving the seasonal TC prediction and will help the development of the next-generation prediction systems.",
keywords = "decision making, predictability, seasonal prediction, tropical cyclone",
author = "Gan Zhang and Hiroyuki Murakami and Rich Gudgel and Xiaosong Yang",
note = "Funding Information: G. Zhang is supported by Princeton University's Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System, through the predicting and explaining extremes Initiative. The IBTrACS data are acquired from National Centers for Environmental Information (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/index.php). The model output used to generate the plots is available at GFDL data portal (ftp://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/users/Gan.Zhang/FLOR/GFDL-CM2p5/). The model code is publicly available at https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cm2-5-and-flor/, and part of the FLOR predictions is available at the https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/ website. We thank Drs. Mitch Bushuk, Baoqiang Xiang, Suzana Camargo, and two reviewers for thoughtful suggestions. Funding Information: G. Zhang is supported by Princeton University's Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System, through the predicting and explaining extremes Initiative. The IBTrACS data are acquired from National Centers for Environmental Information (https:// www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ibtracs/index. php). The model output used to generate the plots is available at GFDL data portal (ftp://data1.gfdl.noaa.gov/ users/Gan.Zhang/FLOR/GFDL‐ CM2p5/). The model code is publicly available at https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/ cm2‐5‐and‐flor/, and part of the FLOR predictions is available at the https:// www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ NMME/ website. We thank Drs. Mitch Bushuk, Baoqiang Xiang, Suzana Camargo, and two reviewers for thoughtful suggestions. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright}2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",
year = "2019",
month = may,
day = "28",
doi = "10.1029/2019GL082529",
language = "English (US)",
volume = "46",
pages = "5506--5515",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.",
number = "10",
}