Dynamic modeling of optimal papaya replanting decisions in the Philippines

Tiffany P. Laude, Gerald C. Nelson, Hayri Önal

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The research question addressed in this paper is whether the standard papaya production practices in the Philippines maximize profits given the existing seasonality in prices. We use a dynamic simulation model to identify the profit-maximizing production cycle of the crop under varying price and crop yields for each variety, including a genetically modified version of the Solo papaya. Our simulation results show that if prices are constant throughout the year, the planting month is irrelevant, but the length of a production cycle affects the total net returns over a finite planning horizon. However, if seasonal prices vary significantly within a year, both the planting month and the cycle length do matter in terms of farmers' net incomes.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)155-170
Number of pages16
JournalQuarterly Journal of International Agriculture
Issue number2
StatePublished - 2009


  • Decisions
  • Dynamic simulation
  • Genetically modified papaya
  • Optimal replanting
  • Philippine papaya varieties

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Development


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