Democracy and the problem of certainty

This paper introduces The Certainty Trap, a pervasive cognitive distortion that leads individuals to treat their knowledge and beliefs as definitive and final rather than provisional, particularly regarding contentious social and political issues. It explores three key fallacies underlying this trap, discusses its consequences, and proposes strategies for moving from certainty to confidence in thinking and discourse. By revealing the mechanisms of The Certainty Trap and its overall impact on various domains of society, this essay aims to contribute to the clearer thinking that can lead to more nuanced and productive approaches to addressing complex societal challenges.