TY - GEN
T1 - Decision-making for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability, high-consequence hazards
T2 - 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP
AU - Cha, E. J.
AU - Ellingwood, B. R.
PY - 2011
Y1 - 2011
N2 - The assessment of risk to civil infrastructure has two components: probability of a potentially damaging event and consequence of damage, measured in terms of financial or human losses. Deci-sion models that have been developed and implemented during the past three decades take into account the probabilistic aspect rationally, but address decision-maker attitudes toward risk only to a limited degree. The application of such models to decisions involving low-probability, high-consequence events affecting civil infrastructure requires a fundamental understanding of risk acceptance attitudes and how they affect individual and group choices. The phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with high consequences, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. This paper utilizes cumulative prospect theory to investigate characteristics of risk-aversion that can be inferred from risk pricing techniques in the insurance industry and explores the role of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety.
AB - The assessment of risk to civil infrastructure has two components: probability of a potentially damaging event and consequence of damage, measured in terms of financial or human losses. Deci-sion models that have been developed and implemented during the past three decades take into account the probabilistic aspect rationally, but address decision-maker attitudes toward risk only to a limited degree. The application of such models to decisions involving low-probability, high-consequence events affecting civil infrastructure requires a fundamental understanding of risk acceptance attitudes and how they affect individual and group choices. The phenomenon of risk aversion may be a significant factor in decisions for civil infrastructure exposed to low-probability events with high consequences, such as earthquakes, hurricanes or floods. This paper utilizes cumulative prospect theory to investigate characteristics of risk-aversion that can be inferred from risk pricing techniques in the insurance industry and explores the role of risk-aversion in assurance of structural safety.
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M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:84856726760
SN - 9780415669863
T3 - Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
SP - 840
EP - 847
BT - Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering -Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering
Y2 - 1 August 2011 through 4 August 2011
ER -