Data Driven Approaches for Passenger Train Delay Estimation

Ren Wang, Daniel Work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

Train delay is a critical problem in railroad operations, which has led to the development of analytical and simulation based approaches to estimate it. With the recent advances in sensing and communication technologies, train positioning information is now available to support new data driven methods for train delay estimation. In this work, two data driven approaches are proposed to estimate train delays based on historical and real time information. A historical regression model is proposed to estimate future train delays at each station using only past performance of the train along the route. Next, several variations of an online regression model are proposed to estimate delay using delay information of the trains at earlier stations along the current trip, as well as delay information of other trains that share the same corridor. The proposed methods are tested with data collected on 282 Amtrak trains (the largest US passenger railroad service) from 2011 to 2013, which consists of more than 100,000 train trips. Compared to prediction based on the scheduled time table, the proposed historical regression model improves the RMSE estimate of delay by 12%, while the online proposed model improves the RMSE estimate of delay by 60%.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationProceedings - 2015 IEEE 18th International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems
Subtitle of host publicationSmart Mobility for Safety and Sustainability, ITSC 2015
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Pages535-540
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781467365956, 9781467365956, 9781467365956, 9781467365956
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 30 2015
Event18th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2015 - Gran Canaria, Spain
Duration: Sep 15 2015Sep 18 2015

Publication series

NameIEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Proceedings, ITSC
Volume2015-October

Other

Other18th IEEE International Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems, ITSC 2015
CountrySpain
CityGran Canaria
Period9/15/159/18/15

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Automotive Engineering
  • Mechanical Engineering
  • Computer Science Applications

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