Abstract
Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict-affected areas. Despite their growing popularity, there is limited evidence on how CCT programs affect conflict and theoretical predictions are ambiguous. We estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level. We find that cash transfers caused a substantial decrease in conflict-related incidents in treatment villages relative to control villages in the first 9 months of the program. Using unique data on local insurgent influence, we also find that the program reduced insurgent influence in treated villages. An analysis of possible spillovers yields inconclusive results. While we find no statistical evidence of spillovers, we also cannot rule out that the village-level effect was due to displacement of insurgent activity from treatment to control villages.
| Original language | English (US) |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 171-182 |
| Number of pages | 12 |
| Journal | Journal of Development Economics |
| Volume | 118 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Jan 1 2016 |
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Keywords
- Civil conflict
- Conditional cash transfers
- Insurgency
- Philippines
- Randomized control trial
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Development
- Economics and Econometrics
Cite this
Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence : Experimental evidence from the Philippines. / Crost, Benjamin; Felter, Joseph H.; Johnston, Patrick B.
In: Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 118, 01.01.2016, p. 171-182.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence
T2 - Experimental evidence from the Philippines
AU - Crost, Benjamin
AU - Felter, Joseph H.
AU - Johnston, Patrick B.
PY - 2016/1/1
Y1 - 2016/1/1
N2 - Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict-affected areas. Despite their growing popularity, there is limited evidence on how CCT programs affect conflict and theoretical predictions are ambiguous. We estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level. We find that cash transfers caused a substantial decrease in conflict-related incidents in treatment villages relative to control villages in the first 9 months of the program. Using unique data on local insurgent influence, we also find that the program reduced insurgent influence in treated villages. An analysis of possible spillovers yields inconclusive results. While we find no statistical evidence of spillovers, we also cannot rule out that the village-level effect was due to displacement of insurgent activity from treatment to control villages.
AB - Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict-affected areas. Despite their growing popularity, there is limited evidence on how CCT programs affect conflict and theoretical predictions are ambiguous. We estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level. We find that cash transfers caused a substantial decrease in conflict-related incidents in treatment villages relative to control villages in the first 9 months of the program. Using unique data on local insurgent influence, we also find that the program reduced insurgent influence in treated villages. An analysis of possible spillovers yields inconclusive results. While we find no statistical evidence of spillovers, we also cannot rule out that the village-level effect was due to displacement of insurgent activity from treatment to control villages.
KW - Civil conflict
KW - Conditional cash transfers
KW - Insurgency
KW - Philippines
KW - Randomized control trial
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84945956528&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84945956528&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.08.005
DO - 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2015.08.005
M3 - Article
VL - 118
SP - 171
EP - 182
JO - Journal of Development of Economics
JF - Journal of Development of Economics
SN - 0304-3878
ER -