Combining system dynamics and Bayesian belief networks for socio-technical risk analysis

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

Abstract

In recent years, interdisciplinary methods integrating deterministic and probabilistic approaches have been gaining popularity due to their effectiveness in decision making for the design and operation of socio-technical systems. This paper demonstrates the value of combining the Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN) and System Dynamics (SD) for socio-technical predictive modeling. BBN is a technique for depicting probabilistic relations among elements of the model, where objective data are lacking and use of expert opinion is necessary. This is beneficial for the quantification of socio-technical models, dealing with the soft nature of human and organizational factors, however, BBN is inadequate for capturing dynamic aspects including feedback loops and delays. Combining SD with BBN can compensate for these BBN deficiencies. As an application, SD-BBN methodology is integrated with classical Probabilistic Risk Analysis (PRA) techniques in order to enable the Socio-Technical Risk Analysis framework to capture dynamic interactions of causal factors within their ranges of uncertainty.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Title of host publicationISI 2010 - 2010 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics
Subtitle of host publicationPublic Safety and Security
Pages196-201
Number of pages6
DOIs
StatePublished - Jul 26 2010
Externally publishedYes
Event2010 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics: Public Safety and Security, ISI 2010 - Vancouver, BC, Canada
Duration: May 23 2010May 26 2010

Publication series

NameISI 2010 - 2010 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics: Public Safety and Security

Other

Other2010 IEEE International Conference on Intelligence and Security Informatics: Public Safety and Security, ISI 2010
CountryCanada
CityVancouver, BC
Period5/23/105/26/10

Keywords

  • Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN)
  • Probabilistic Risk Analysis(PRA)
  • Socio-Technical Risk Analsyis(SoTeRiA)
  • System Dynamics(SD)

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Information Systems
  • Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Combining system dynamics and Bayesian belief networks for socio-technical risk analysis'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this